---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000540705.md"
description: "Money market swaps now assuming a 41% chance of a Fed interest rate HIKE by October as a result of the surge in Brent crude, up another +1.8% today to $111/barrel.  10yrTY now at 4.37% up from 3.95% a month ago, which is impacting long duration equities most. Hard to know how much more economic and political pain President Trump can withstand to achieve his goals in Iran."
datetime: "2026-03-20T18:47:42.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000540705.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000540705.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000540705.md)
author: "[Gary Black Tracker](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17077344.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Money market swaps now assuming a 41% chance of a …


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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**