--- title: "The Most Expensive IPO Ever: Musk Left Three Hidden Catches" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000734083.md" description: "Beijing time, June 12 — SpaceX officially went public, ticker SPCX, IPO price $135, market cap $1.75 trillion, the largest IPO in history.A quick heads-up: the listing day itself actually isn't the mo..." datetime: "2026-06-12T08:35:59.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000734083.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000734083.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000734083.md) author: "[Captain's Watch](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/24747427.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # The Most Expensive IPO Ever: Musk Left Three Hidden Catches Beijing time, June 12 — SpaceX officially went public, ticker **SPCX**, IPO price **$135**, market cap **$1.75 trillion**, the largest IPO in history. A quick heads-up: the listing day itself actually isn't the most important thing. What really drives this stock's short-term logic are the **next three key dates**. Understand these three dates and you understand this stock. ## 1\. First, grasp one premise: chips are extremely scarce **$SpaceX (SPCX.US)** issued 555 million Class A shares — only **4.3%** of total shares outstanding. Think of it as a cake of 100 slices: SpaceX cut only 4.3 slices to sell, while the other 95.7 are all locked and can't move. Meaning: very little is actually available to buy, but lots of people want in — supply and demand are wildly out of balance. ## 2\. The three key dates, in one table Why **July 7** is special: the Nasdaq-100 has a "15th-trading-day" fast-track inclusion channel. FTSE Russell issued new fast-entry rules for exactly this, and MSCI confirmed it will include large IPOs early under current rules. Listing June 12 — and skipping the June 19 Juneteenth holiday and the July 3 Independence Day close — the 15th trading day lands precisely on **July 7**. From that day, every global fund tracking these indices **must unconditionally buy SPCX**; the market estimates passive buying of **$8B–$18B**. One important exception: **S&P explicitly refused** to fast-track SpaceX, keeping its old "listed 12 months + GAAP-profitable" rule — so SPY won't buy until **mid-2027 at the earliest**. Don't mix this up. Meanwhile, none of the early shareholders' lockups have expired — not one share can be sold. So: tens of billions in must-buy orders on one side, almost no supply on the other — this is the **"chip vacuum window."** ## 3\. The "30% big unlock" isn't that scary Many people panic the moment they hear "30% unlocks at end of July" — but that number is badly misread. The real structure: the 30% is **not** unconditional. **20%** can be sold 2 days after the first earnings report; the other **10%** only unlocks early if the price is 30% above the IPO price and holds there for 5 of 10 trading days. Breaking down the early shareholders: - **Musk himself** (~42% stake, per the S-1): **366-day absolute lockup** — can't touch it at end of July - **BlackRock**: reportedly considering subscribing **$5B–$10B** at the IPO — a buyer, not a seller - **Ron Baron**: explicitly said "won't sell a single share, and will buy another **$1B**" - **ARK Invest**: capped by its 10% single-stock limit, will sell a little, but adds in its other funds Strip out Musk's 40%+, and the unlock shares that could actually hit the market are only about **10%–15%** of total — and the big holders lean toward **adding**, not selling. This "unlock" is more noise than crisis. ## 4\. Why is TSLA falling this week? On June 10, $Tesla(TSLA.US) closed at **$381.59**, down ~4% on the day, ~6.6% on the week, and ~9% off its recent high of $418. Short-term reason: the SpaceX IPO siphoned off capital that would otherwise have gone to TSLA — many sold TSLA to free up cash for SPCX. But there's a bigger story: **merger speculation is heating up** — and it's not just gossip: - CNBC reported Musk has discussed **combining SpaceX and Tesla** with colleagues - SpaceX's amended prospectus added the language: "may issue a large number of shares for future transactions" - Prediction market **Kalshi** puts the odds of a merger before March 2027 at ~**51%**; Wedbush's **Dan Ives** goes as high as **80%** If it's a stock-for-stock merger, then once announced, arbitrage capital would lock TSLA to "exchange ratio × SPCX" pricing, and the two stocks would move in a linked orbit. But two buckets of cold water: **First**, a stock-swap merger means SpaceX issues a large amount of new stock, which directly kills the "chip scarcity" logic above — and an acquirer's stock typically comes under pressure after the announcement. **Second**, this is a related-party transaction with the controlling shareholder on both sides, requiring an independent committee and a minority-shareholder vote (recall the SolarCity acquisition, which was litigated for seven years) — so a near-term announcement is unlikely. **This is speculation, not fact. Both the timing and the structure are undetermined.** ## Summary: How should retail investors read each time point? **Bottom line:** - **SPCX early days (June 12 – July 6):** chip scarcity + sentiment premium — price will likely sit above the IPO price, but very volatile. Don't chase highs. - **Around July 7:** the most *certain* passive-buying peak of the whole IPO — the window most worth watching. - **End-July unlock:** don't be spooked by the "30% unlock" headline; actual selling pressure is limited. - **TSLA:** short-term pressured by IPO capital diversion, but a beneficiary if the merger narrative plays out. At the current ~$381, holders can keep watching and wait for signals around July 7. **Related tickers:** - $Tesla(TSLA.US) — main merger-speculation line / after-hours $378.80 - $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) — automatically holds SPCX after the July 7 inclusion - $VG Total Stock(VTI.US) / $VG Growth(VUG.US) — Vanguard CRSP, first inclusion wave - $SpaceX(SPCX.US) - $SPCX 2X Long ETF(SPCH.US) - $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) - $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) *Risk disclaimer: The above is reasoning based on public information and market analysis. The merger is speculation and unconfirmed; price movements can't be predicted. Make decisions according to your own risk tolerance.* ### Related Stocks - [DXYZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DXYZ.US.md) - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [SPCH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCH.US.md) - [ASTS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASTS.US.md) - [RKLB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RKLB.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [VTI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VTI.US.md) - [VUG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VUG.US.md) ## Comments (2) - **Piper73 · 2026-06-12T13:17:26.000Z**: 115 🥰 - **Fattycat · 2026-06-12T10:44:07.000Z · 👍 1**: I asked ChatGPT the probability of SpaceX closing share price for today and the response is as below 😆:Closes above $135 (60–70% chance)Gains more than 10% (40–60% chance)Gains more than 25% (20–40% chance)Closes below $135 ( 30–40% chance)What is your guesses 🙄? --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**