Memory Stopped Falling Right Before the Biggest Memory IPO of the Year. Coincidence?
After a brutal week that dragged memory into a bear market, the group quietly stabilised today. Micron closed at 948, off the lows, and SanDisk swung a wild intraday range but held. The timing is not random. SK Hynix prices its US IPO Thursday and starts trading Friday, and the deal is more than 7 times oversubscribed, on track to raise around 28 billion dollars, one of the largest US listings ever by a foreign company. You do not get a 7x oversubscribed memory IPO if smart money thinks the cycle is over.
What the oversubscription actually tells you
An IPO book that is 7 times oversubscribed at a 28 billion dollar size means institutions are lining up to own more memory exposure, not less, right at the moment retail was panic-selling it into a bear market. SK Hynix holds somewhere between 50 and 70 percent of the HBM market depending on how you count. When the HBM leader can raise 28 billion dollars this easily, the demand story for the whole chain is intact.
Why the stocks fell anyway
The selloff was never really about demand. It was about valuation catching down after memory ran too far, too fast, plus the DeepSeek in-house chip headline giving bears a structural story to hang onto. Both are real. Neither changes the fact that HBM is booked and pricing held through Samsung's record quarter. This is what a mid-cycle shakeout looks like, violent and scary, not a top.
Where I am positioned
I hold $Micron Tech(MU.US) with a cost basis around 1,050, so I am still underwater after the bear-market leg. I did not add today and I will not add into the SK Hynix listing itself, because events like that cut both ways. My plan is to watch how memory trades after Friday. If SK Hynix debuts well and the group holds, I add back. If the biggest memory IPO of the year lands with a thud, that tells me the bears were right and I stay patient.
The honest risk
The one thing that would flip me is hyperscaler capex guidance turning down, and the Fed minutes today actually flagged AI capex as a forecast uncertainty, which is worth noting. I do not think it changes 2026, but when the Fed starts talking about your favourite trade as an inflation risk, you keep a hand near the exit. For now, memory stabilising into a 7x oversubscribed IPO reads bullish to me.
Not financial advice, just how I read the setup into Friday.
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