--- title: "☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Cool CPI Lifts Chips, IBM Craters 25%" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000796295.md" description: "Inflation finally broke the market's way. June CPI cooled hard to 3.5%, the biggest monthly drop in six years, gutting July hike odds and sending chips flying. But it was a split tape: JPMorgan and Go..." datetime: "2026-07-15T03:07:26.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000796295.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000796295.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000796295.md) author: "[Captain's Watch](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/24747427.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # ☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Cool CPI Lifts Chips, IBM Craters 25% Inflation finally broke the market's way. June CPI cooled hard to 3.5%, the biggest monthly drop in six years, gutting July hike odds and sending chips flying. But it was a split tape: JPMorgan and Goldman printed records, while IBM had its worst day since 1987. And SK Hynix's US shares went vertical. Let's dig in 👇 ## 📊 Quick Recap — What Moved & Why ### 🇺🇸 US — CPI Relief, Records and a Wreck **🔑 Key Event:** Cooling inflation drove a rotation back into risk. 📈 **S&P 500 +0.38% to 7,544, Nasdaq +0.9% to 26,107, Dow +0.02%** (held back by IBM). June CPI fell **0.4% on the month to 3.5% YoY** (vs 3.8% expected, down from 4.2%), the biggest monthly drop since 2020, with core easing to 2.6%. July rate-hike odds collapsed to **17% from 42%**, and semis led the relief rally. **👀 Other to Watch** - **Banks split** → **JPMorgan** net income jumped 41% to a record ~$21B (boosted by a one-off $4.6B Visa gain; adjusted EPS $6.14 still beat); **Goldman Sachs** posted its best quarter ever (EPS ~$21, revenue +39%) and rose ~9%. **Citi** gave back early gains to close down ~5%. - **IBM (IBM)** -25% → its worst day on record (surpassing the 1987 crash). Q2 revenue ($17.2B) missed; the CEO blamed a late-June client budget shift into supply-constrained servers, storage and memory. That tell matters for the whole hardware trade. - **SK Hynix (SKHY)** +27% → its US ADRs went vertical as options began trading, pushing the premium over Seoul shares to ~51%, helped by a Barclays Overweight and 12-layer HBM4 mass production. - **Memory + Nvidia** → Micron and SanDisk rose 5%+; **Nvidia (NVDA)** +4% after the US granted H200 export licenses to a small set of Chinese firms (ZTE Kangxun, server maker Maginfra, plus a Kingsoft Cloud unit cleared for AMD), though officials say actual shipments so far are "trivial." > @CLuo **:** "WDC is pulling back as investors lock in profits after a strong AI-driven rally. The selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a sudden change in fundamentals. I remain positive on long-term enterprise HDD demand." > @NewUser\_zS0M8w **:** "Super Micro has fallen about 44% over the past year on dilution and regulatory concerns. Citi's Asiya Merchant raised her SMCI target to $33, citing long-term demand for AI infrastructure." ### 🇭🇰 HK/China — Trade Beat Lifts HK **🔑 Key Event:HSI +0.52% to 24,341**, recovering from an early dip below 24,000 after China's June trade data beat on both exports and imports. The Nvidia H200 export approvals are a direct tailwind for the big China cloud names. **👀 Other to Watch** - **CXMT (ChangXin Memory)** → opens subscription July 16 for a **$4.3B** Shanghai STAR IPO, the largest-ever on the board; Alibaba Cloud is a strategic investor. ### 🇸🇬 Singapore — Economy Beats, Manufacturing on Fire **🔑 Key Event:** Singapore's Q2 GDP grew **5.7% YoY** (advance estimate), easing from 6.3% in Q1 but beating the 5.5% forecast. **Manufacturing led with +12.2%**, powered by electronics and precision engineering on AI-chip demand. MTI kept its 2-4% full-year forecast but flagged rising downside risks from the Iran conflict. **👀 Other to Watch** - STI closed at a record **5,493 (+0.42%)**, an eighth straight winning session, with the AI-manufacturing story now showing up directly in the national GDP print. ### 🌍 Other - 🛢️ **Oil & Hormuz** → WTI settled **+1.5% at $79.34** and Brent **+1.7% at $84.73** (touching $87 intraday) as the US kept striking Iran, but Trump dropped his proposed 20% Hormuz transit fee, saying Gulf states will invest in the US instead. - 🥇 **Gold** → firmed as the cool CPI pulled Treasury yields down and eased the rate-hike pressure that has weighed on it all year. ## 📅 Key Events Tonight / This Week - 🇺🇸 June PPI · today (Wed Jul 15) - 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Warsh Senate testimony (day 2) · today Jul 15 - 🇳🇱 ASML Q2 earnings · today Jul 15 - 🇨🇳 TSMC Q2 earnings · Thu Jul 16 - 🇸🇬 Longbridge AI conference + Jensen Huang in Tokyo · today Jul 15 **💬 IBM just had its worst day ever because clients yanked budgets from software and mainframes to grab scarce memory and servers. Is that a one-off stumble, or the clearest sign yet that AI spending is rotating from software into hardware?** 👇 Drop your take (20+ words) & click "Repost" to earn 288 Task Coins ✨ 🚫 No duplicates · ⏰ Deadline: July 15, 2026, 11:59 PM SGT Not investment advice, just market talk 🙏 ### Related Stocks - [V.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/V.US.md) - [BARC.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BARC.UK.md) - [BCS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BCS.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [IBM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBM.US.md) - [SKUU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKUU.US.md) - [SKHX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHX.US.md) - [SKHZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHZ.US.md) - [SKDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKDD.US.md) - [SKHU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHU.US.md) ## Comments (30) - **NewUser_zS0M8w · 2026-07-15T14:41:14.000Z**: The biggest US banks reported earnings yesterday with a stellar record. Both J.P. Morgan & Goldman Sachs reported way better than expected earnings, which led the banking sector higher. The finance sector is finally getting some love - even local banks are creating new highs everyday. Yet, the h - **NewUser_oPJWOU · 2026-07-15T14:23:11.000Z**: Bank stocks continue the rally without any signs of stopping. Even when market opened lower yesterday, our 3 local banks managed to turn the tide and lead the reversal to eventually close higher for the day. I believe this is great for long term investors, but at the same time also expect the prices - **NewUser_CkrdqW · 2026-07-15T10:08:21.000Z**: June CPI came in lower than expected and the markets cheered slightly. Software stocks turned positive by closing while massive capital was flowing back into chips and memory stocks. However, I still hold a neutral stance as the macro risk is still very real. With companies starting to report earnin - **Shyon · 2026-07-15T08:44:11.000Z**: I don't think IBM's collapse is just a company-specific issue. To me, management's explanation is actually one of the most important takeaways from this earnings season. If customers are delaying software and mainframe spending because they are prioritizing AI servers, storage and memory, it suggest - **Helen72 · 2026-07-15T07:55:06.000Z**: The Hang Seng Index is currently in a volatile rebound and requires sustained capital inflows. If the trading volume can break through HKD 250 billion or even HKD 300 billion for a whole week, the 26,000-point level will be conquered within a few trading days. Looking forward to it! 🤩 - **koolgal · 2026-07-15T07:18:32.000Z**: 🌟🌟🌟 What's really exciting today in the Singapore market is the 3 Singapore banks continuing their all time highs driving the STI Index past the 5,500 mark.$DBS(D05.SG)recently achieved a landmark session by surpassing the SGD 70 threshold for the first time in history. Its market cap is now past t - **NewUser_IDujAz1 · 2026-07-15T06:48:59.000Z**: Probably one-off stumble since IBM was awarded $1 billion by US government in May 2026 to help establish Anderon, a standalone quantum-chip manufacturing company. - **Mario · 2026-07-15T06:46:29.000Z**: TSMC will zoom up after earning report tomorrow - **LazyCat · 2026-07-15T06:30:36.000Z**: IBM's software was hit as these were to be ran on their proprietary z17 mainframes (massive centralised supercomputer hardware). The capex for 3rd party servers (think Lego blocked CPU-GPU) engines is for AI workloads which is a different use case from z17. So it's not spending rotating from softwar - **Dacai · 2026-07-15T06:21:00.000Z**: I’m really pleased to see STI breaking new record. A large part of that has to do with the 3 big banks which are on fire. I’m not so sure if this has to do with the AI manufacturing story. The AI manufacturing related stocks (component suppliers) I hold are up one day and down the next. - **dingdongbell · 2026-07-15T05:56:09.000Z · 👍 1**: Its good that inflation came down. Hopefully the data keeps trending in a good way and helps keep the prices of things, especially essential ones, manageable. - **Fattycat · 2026-07-15T05:54:56.000Z · 👍 1**: I used to work at IBM and honestly, I do not have a good experience there. I never liked the culture or work environment at all. That’s why I never buy their shares.Go take a look at their financial statements from 2020 to 2025. Compare the CEO’s pay against the company’s yearly revenue . You will b - **Fattycat · 2026-07-15T05:46:25.000Z · 👍 1**: Gold surged 700 pips right after yesterday’s CPI release only to fall back again quickly. What a classic bull trap 🥲.Frankly speaking, I don’t buy these CPI numbers at all. With the Strait of Hormuz still shut, there is no way oil prices can drop back to pre-conflict levels ☺️.Go ask around your fri - **TheRaccoonAnalysis · 2026-07-15T05:37:58.000Z · 👍 1**: Cooling inflation strengthened expectations that price pressures are easing, prompting investors to increase exposure to risk assets. Softer-than-expected CPI reduced expectations of a near-term interest rate hike, supporting gains in technology and semiconductor stocks, which are generally more sen - **NewUser_Unm6i · 2026-07-15T05:34:12.000Z**: Software and hardware are equally important for AI to work. - **Heroic Lifesaver · 2026-07-15T05:04:22.000Z**: Looks like inflation is cooling (at least on data) and more evidence that capital is being shunted into AI related spendings first which shows the urgency and scarcity of supply. - **Tiffany lover · 2026-07-15T04:51:20.000Z · 👍 1**: Singapore's Q2 GDP grew by 5.7% year-on-year (preliminary estimate), slowing down from 6.3% in Q1 but exceeding the 5.5% expectation. The manufacturing sector led with a +12.2% growth rate, driven by strong performance in the electronics and precision engineering industries fueled by demand for AI c - **Victor y · 2026-07-15T04:49:16.000Z · 👍 1**: Cooling CPI boosted sentiment, but the real story was the shift in sector leadership and capital flows.IBM's selloff reinforces that AI spending is shifting toward chips, memory, and infrastructure rather than software. Leadership from SK Hynix, Nvidia and semis suggests AI capex remains strong desp - **NewUser_VM0QD · 2026-07-15T04:14:45.000Z**: IBM a 25% sell off in a single day reflect skepticism on the market. Will other stocks follow? On the other hand, cybersecurity stocks gain with the sell off giving rise to possibility of a capital rotation into cyber stocks. - **NewUser_L3EOvL · 2026-07-15T04:09:15.000Z**: So market fears have subsided with just a soft CPI? Seems more like just a bounce only.. I'd much rather look at SG market now --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**