Equity research
2026.07.21 19:31

Former manager at Google on data center interconnect market and spending:

"Your neoclouds, their spend for DCI is double because they don't have that infrastructure in there yet. They're brand new. Some of these guys have only been around five years. They don't have a network between all their buildings yet. They're building that out. Their spend is double."

> 2026 Total Addressable Market (TAM): Estimated at USD 10 billion to USD 15 billion in total DCI orders for 2026, encompassing coherent optical modules, line systems, switches, and software at the system level.

> Long-Term Growth: Most estimates project a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 20% to 30% over the next 3 to 5 years, with the low end around 15% to 20% and the high end around 30% to 35%. The expert suggests the industry could scale up to a USD 30 billion TAM by 2030.

> DCI vs. Scale-Across: The expert highlights that traditional DCI was for redundancy and backup, but AI has created a new category called "scale-across". Scale-across connects multiple buildings within a mega-site campus (e.g., five 200MW buildings roughly 2,000 meters apart) and represents about 50% of the 100GW of new capacity coming online by 2030. True DCI connects data centers hundreds of kilometers apart (or in the 10km to 40km optimal range for AI clusters) due to power constraints and model training scale.

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