Nomura Research: TSMC CoWoS
TSMC CoWoS Capacity Expansion Trend> Aggressive Upward Revision: According to Nomura estimates, TSMC has turned significantly more aggressive on its CoWoS capacity expansion compared to previous targets (Dec 2025 baseline).> Growth Trajectory: Quarterly capacity is projected to scale up dramatically from around 200 thousand pieces (kpcs) in late 2025/early 2026 to near 600 kpcs per quarter by late 2027.> Divergence from Older Projections: While previous estimates flattened out near 330 kpcs per quarter through 2026 and 2027, current forecasts show continuous sequential expansion starting from mid-2026 onwards.CoWoS Output Breakdown (Volume Growth)> Total Volume Surge: Total output volume is scaling multifold, expanding rapidly from 2023 levels to an estimated peak approaching 2,000 kpcs annually by 2027F.> NVIDIA Dominance in Volume: NVIDIA remains the single largest consumer of TSMC's CoWoS capacity by a wide margin, scaling from a minority share in 2023 to over 1,000 kpcs by 2027F.> Diversification of Hyperscalers: Volume is increasingly supporting customized accelerators and ASICs from major cloud service providers, notably Google and AWS, alongside AMD+Xilinx and Meta.CoWoS Output Allocation Share (%)> NVIDIA Share Stabilization: NVIDIA’s relative share of total CoWoS allocation stabilizes in the 55% to 58% range from 2025F to 2027F, after peaking earlier relative to its initial 2023 baseline.> Google's Expanding Footprint: Google captures the second-largest share of allocation, maintaining a steady slice around 24% to 26% of total capacity through the forecast window.> Other Players: AMD+Xilinx, AWS, Meta, and other networking/FPGA applications split the remaining allocation, with hyperscaler custom silicon taking up a stable overall proportion of advanced packaging lines.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)
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