Nomura: Optical
Market Overview & Growth Projections> Revenue Expansion: The global datacenter optical transceiver market is projected to reach USD 47.7bn in 2026F and surge to USD 144.2bn by 2028F, representing a rapid CAGR of 74% from 2026 to 2028F.> Primary Growth Catalyst: Market expansion is primarily driven by robust, buoyant demand coming from large language model (LLM) training and inference workloads.High-End Transceiver Shipment ForecastsHigh-end speeds (800G and 1.6T) are experiencing stronger momentum due to accelerated technology upgrades within AI networking segments:> 800G Transceivers: Projected shipments stand at 33.8mn units in 2026F, scaling to 55.0mn units in 2027F, and 78.0mn units in 2028F.> 1.6T Transceivers: Projected shipments stand at 26.1mn units in 2026F, increasing to 71.5mn units in 2027F, and reaching 126.0mn units by 2028F.> Next-Generation Speeds (2.4T / 3.2T): Initial shipments are expected to commence in 2027F and 2028F, ultimately reaching volumes of 5mn units and 2mn units respectively by 2028F.Architectural Evolution & Supply Chain Dynamics> Co-Packaged Roadmap: As the industry migrates toward co-packaged optics, deliveries of NPO (Near-Package Optics) and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) products are expected to start rolling out between 2027F and 2028F, serving as fresh demand multipliers for high-power optical lasers.> Supply Chain Constraints: Unprecedented demand cycles continue to pressure optical chip suppliers' fulfillment capabilities, giving IDM players like Yuanjie a competitive edge in a supply-constrained market environment.$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)
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