$SPY — AS SIMPLE AS I CAN PUT IT$SPX $QQQ $SMHThe

$SPY — AS SIMPLE AS I CAN PUT IT

$SPX $QQQ $SMH

The market has started a new rally attempt, but one green day does not confirm the bottom.

The timeline

Day 1: Thursday, July 30

Day 2: Friday, July 31

Day 3: Monday, August 3

Follow-Through Day window:

Tuesday, August 4 through Friday, August 7

During that window, $SPY needs to deliver a true Jump Across the Creek:

A powerful green candle, preferably +1.25% or more, closing through the $750–$755 resistance zone on volume higher than the previous session.

That would show institutions are stepping back in and confirm that this recovery attempt has real buying power behind it—similar to the April 8 Follow-Through Day shown on the chart.

What could create the catalyst?

The cleanest path would be:

IRAN MOU SIGNED. TERMS AGREED. WAR RISK PREMIUM REMOVED.

That could help:

Push oil lower

Ease inflation expectations

Cool PCE pressure

Stabilize Treasury yields

Allow capital to rotate back into risk assets

What happens without confirmation?

Without the high-volume breakout, this remains only a Vanna bounce.

$SPY could reject near resistance, fade back into August chop and potentially revisit the $729–$730 recovery low, with the July lows coming back into play if that support fails.

There are only 67 trading sessions from July 31 through the November 3 election, including Election Day and excluding Labor Day.

The market needs clarity.

Inflation needs to cool.

Oil needs to cool.

The war premium needs to disappear.

GET THE DEAL DONE.

THE PEOPLE ARE OVER THE ENDLESS WAR.

@WhiteHouse @SecScottBessent @SecRubio @VP @PressSec @federalreserve @SecWar