---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000847176.md"
description: "$SPY — THE ROADMAP INTO JACKSON HOLEWe now have two major Follow-Through Days in 2026:April 8 → Follow-Through DayThe MACD thrust coming off the oversold lows was extremely powerful and helped launch the spring advance.August 4 → Follow-Through DayThe MACD thrust is positive again. Not quite the same explosion we saw in April, but momentum is clearly improving and the market has confirmed another rally attempt.My roadmap from here:FIB Bar 13 → August OPEXFIB Bar 21 → Jackson Hole, August 27Bars 21–34 → Jackson Hole through the September 16 FOMCThat 8/27 → 9/16 window is where I think the risk of the late-summer swoon increases.Why?We move through Labor Day, kids go back to school, summer liquidity/volume changes, and then Jackson Hole gives the Fed another opportunity to talk hawkish and scare the market. That creates a natural window for profit-taking after an August run.MY BASE CASENOW → AUGUST 27: BULLISH BIASEarnings remain supportive. If CPI, PPI and labor data stay tame, the market has room to continue running into Jackson Hole.Then I want to become more defensive.AUGUST 27 → SEPTEMBER 16: CAUTION / SUMMER SWOON WINDOWThis is where I would expect momentum to weaken, particularly if the market becomes extended going into Jackson Hole.Then comes the next major decision point:SEPTEMBER 16 FOMCAbsent a major inflation shock or geopolitical change, I do not currently see a compelling reason for the Fed to hike rates. Iran/energy remains an important wildcard because another oil shock could quickly change the inflation conversation.THE TRADEFor now, I am treating the August 4 Follow-Through Day as valid until price proves otherwise.Ride the August momentum → respect August OPEX → look to trim risk into Jackson Hole → prepare for potential weakness into the September FOMC.The market doesn't have to repeat April.It just needs to keep confirming the trend.$SPY TREND: HIGHER UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE."
datetime: "2026-08-10T17:06:05.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000847176.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000847176.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000847176.md)
author: "[Jim](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/27423962.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# $SPY — THE ROADMAP INTO JACKSON HOLEWe now have tw…


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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**