E
Aug 14 at 11:16 AM
Mizuho: InP & Memory
Supply Chain & Gating Factors> InP Laser Supply: Remains tight into 2027E as multiple suppliers work to bring capacity online.> NPO & CPO Dynamics: NPO continues to act as a near-term bridge for CPO, which is expected to ramp in 2H27/28E.> CRDO Position: Believed to be the leader in Active Electrical Cables (AEC), with market ramping at a 98% 2024–29E CAGR, driven by additional upside from ZFO, ALC/MicroLED, and SiPho ramps.> LITE Commentary: 1.6T ramps feature 200G accounting for >25% of revenues, with CPO delayed to 2H27. CRDO benefits from this alongside Neocloud strength for AEC.Memory & Storage Pricing (NAND/DRAM)> ASP Spikes: NAND/DRAM Average Selling Prices (ASPs) are projected up 406%/421% y/y in 2026E.> Growth Moderation: Growth slows down in 2027E, with NAND expected to be flat and DRAM up 52% y/y.AI DC Short-Reach Copper Cable Split > Market Expansion: Total units grow steadily from 8M in 2024 to 23M by 2029.> AEC Adoption: AEC units increase from 0M (2024) to 12M (2027) and 12M (2029), with total AEC penetration (including optical %) scaling to over 40% by 2029.Estimated Wholesale 1.6T Cable Prices ($)AEC: $225ALC: $400EML-based Transceiver: $700CPO: $150$Credo Tech(CRDO.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $DDRAM $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $EWY
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