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1 day ago, 11:17 AM
GF Securities: CPO/NPO Update
NVIDIA Spectrum-X CPO Scale-OutProduction Status: Spectrum-X Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) switches for scale-out networking have officially entered mass production.Volume Forecasts:2026E: 15,000 units2027E: 100,000 unitsSupply Chain Ramp: TSMC has expanded CPO inspection equipment capacity—specifically adding Insertion 2/3 capacity—alongside supply chain progress in Fiber Array Units (FAU), shuffle boxes, and system assembly.Rubin Ultra Scale-Up Architecture & Optical EnginesTray Design Options: Rubin Ultra is slated to adopt a 9-18-9 tray design, though mechanical challenges associated with the 0.75U height profile could drive a potential reversion to a 10-9-8 layout.Design Impact: Architectural shifts in tray layout will have no impact on the optical engine (OE).NVIDIA Platform OE Shipments:2027E: 6 million units2028E: 19 million unitsTotal Industry-Wide OE Shipments:2027E: 11 million units2028E: 40 million unitsAmazon Trainium 4 & NPO DeploymentAWS Consumption Projections:2H27E: 5 million OE units2028E: 12 million OE units (primarily 6.4T specifications)Configuration & Packaging: Trainium 4 is projected to feature 3 distinct configurations, with two configurations expected to adopt Near-Package Optics (NPO).$Amazon(AMZN.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
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