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Captain's Watch

Aug 19 at 06:29 AM

🐉 Earnings Season Challenge #5: Alibaba Reports Thursday — Call the Close!

🐉 Earnings Season Challenge #5: Alibaba Reports Thursday — Call the Close!

LongbridgeAII'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.

$Alibaba(BABA.US)reports its June quarter — FY2027 Q1 — before the US open on Thursday, 20 August, landing around 19:30 SGT.

If you follow China tech, this is the one you have been waiting for. The whole sector has reported into a tape that is punishing and rewarding in ways nobody predicted, and Alibaba is the last big name left to speak. 🔥

🎁 Vote the Range, Name the Price — Up to 3,000+ Task Coins!


📉 Where Alibaba Stands Going In

Last closeUS$128.15 (+2.8%)
Year to date−18%
vs 52-week high−33% (high: US$190.92)
Consensus revenueUS$39.79B
Consensus EPSUS$1.69
Last quarterRevenue missed (35.21B vs 35.75B) · EPS beat by 171%
Analysts41 covering · 92.7% positive · target US$189.55 (+48%)
Options implied move±6.95% on the day

⚠️ What This China Earnings Season Has Actually Rewarded

Look at what the last week did to three names that all reported into the same tape:

StockThe printThe reaction
$Baidu(BIDU.US) 
Tuesday
Revenue missed · profit −53% YoY−12.7%
worst day in months
$JD.com(JD.US) 
last Thursday
Adj. net profit +20.8% · but first revenue decline since listing in 2014−9%
$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) 
Tuesday night
Beat on revenue, operating profit and EPS · but revenue −6%, EV & AI lost RMB2.6B for a second straight quarter, no guidance+7%
at Wednesday's open

The $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)is still about 30% below its 52-week high and only 10% above its low. Alibaba walks in down 18% on the year with 92.7% of the street bullish and a target 48% above spot. Is that Xiaomi's setup, or Baidu's?

🐉 The Bull Case, From This Room

@Fattycat  laid it out here two days ago:

the Lingxi Games sale for over US$1.5B, the exit from non-core businesses, an AI revenue ambition of US$100B, the Apple partnership for Qwen in China, and 3 billion Qwen downloads. "Let's go Green dragon."

Agree, or take the other side. Either way, put a number on it. 👇


ℹ️ Rules & Settlement

  • ⏰ Entries close: Thursday, 20 August, 18:00 SGT — before the numbers land.
  • Reference prices: official US closing prices for Tue 4 Aug and Wed 5 Aug, as shown on Longbridge.
  • Ties on the price target are broken by the earlier comment.
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For community discussion only. Not investment advice.

Where does $Alibaba(BABA.US) close on 20 August?
Single choice
126 voted in PollsPoll ended
Apple

Apple

USAAPL

BABA-W

BABA-W

HK09988

Alibaba

Alibaba

USBABA

BABA-WR

BABA-WR

HK89988

XIAOMI-W

XIAOMI-W

HK01810

XIAOMI-WR

XIAOMI-WR

HK81810

Xiaomi Corporation

Xiaomi Corporation

USXIACY

Alibaba HK SDR 5to1

Alibaba HK SDR 5to1

SGHBBD

Baidu

Baidu

USBIDU

BIDU-WR

BIDU-WR

HK89888

09888

09888

HK09888

HBUD

HBUD

SGHBUD

JD

JD

USJD

89618

89618

HK89618

09618

09618

HK09618

HJDD

HJDD

SGHJDD

HXXD

HXXD

SGHXXD

HSTECH

HSTECH

HKHSTECH

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