【Market Predict & Win】US August CPI Tonight: Oil Says Hike, Core Says Wait

Oil Says Hike. Core Says Wait.

Last month we talked about the jobs market collapsed, the September hike killed. Guess what — the collapse never happened. July's -23,000 payrolls has since been revised all the way up to +21,000, and August then added 162,000 jobs against just 53,000 expected. Meanwhile, Brent crude blew through $100 and hit $107 on the Iran war, and Thursday's wholesale inflation print landed right on forecast.

Put together, traders now price the odds of a rate hike next Wednesday at more than 73%.

Tonight at 8:30pm SGT, the Fed gets its last piece of data before deciding.

📖 First, learn the three CPI numbers you're calling

(Last round, all three landed exactly on consensus — the winning code was 1B 2B 3B. Lightning rarely strikes twice.)

🤔 Why this one release matters so much

Two arguments are on the table, and tonight decides which one wins:

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said there's still "work to do" on inflation. Governor Christopher Waller has signalled he'd rather hold. 2.4% is the dividing line. Come in under it and the doves get their argument back. Print at or above it and the hike case hardens.

🇸🇬 And why it lands on Singapore Market

MAS runs monetary policy through the exchange rate (the S$NEER), not through a policy rate — so our rates are set largely by what happens over there.

And this time it's not only over there. The same oil shock is already in our own basket: Singapore's core inflation jumped to 2.0% in July from 1.6%, with headline at 2.2% — the highest in nearly two years, driven by electricity, gas and food.

Notice your T-bill already moved 11 basis points in a month without MAS touching anything. That's the transmission working in real time.

🎯 How to play

Three questions. One comment. Six characters.

Q1 — Core CPI, year-on-year?(July: 2.5% · Expected: 2.4%)A 2.3% or lower B 2.4% C 2.5% or higher

Q2 — Headline CPI, year-on-year?(July: 3.4% · Expected: 3.4%)A 3.3% or lower B 3.4% C 3.5% or higher

Q3 — Core CPI, month-on-month?(July: +0.2% · Expected: +0.2%)A +0.1% or lower B +0.2% C +0.3% or higher

👉 Drop your three calls in the comments like this: 1B 2B 3B

🏆 Call all three right → you split a 10,000 task coin prize pool. 💰

⏰ Calls lock at 8:30pm SGT tonight — before the data drops. Mark your calendars!

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