Fed day. And I’m not sure the rate decision is even the most important part.

The market has already formed a pretty strong expectation about what the Fed will do tonight, so I’m actually more interested in what comes next.

Is this just a one-off move in response to inflation pressures?

Or does the Fed think rates need to stay higher for longer?

That distinction matters much more to me as an investor.

So tonight I’ll mainly be watching three things:

1. Bond yields. 2. The US dollar. 3. And how tech and crypto react after the announcement.

Sometimes the market reaction tells you much more than the headline itself.

If the Fed sounds hawkish but Treasury yields struggle to move higher, or the dollar fails to strengthen, that would definitely get my attention.

On the other hand, if yields break higher and the dollar follows, liquidity-sensitive assets like tech and crypto could have a tougher time.

So for me, tonight isn’t just about:

“What does the Fed do?”

It’s more about:

“How much has the market already priced in — and what does it do once the news is actually out?”

That’s what I’ll be watching. 👀

@Captain Leo