The most probable year-end picture is “higher for longer, but not necessarily higher every week.” The 10-year yield is likely to fluctuate around 5%, while the 30-year remains under greater pressure from fiscal supply and the term premium. A sustained move toward 6% would probably require another oil shock or a loss of confidence that inflation is being contained; a decline below roughly 4.8% would likely require clear labor-market deterioration, lower energy prices and softer Treasury supply.

A useful next step would be to stress-test how these three yield scenarios could affect mortgage rates, technology valuations, banks, and long-duration bond prices through year-end.