Wholesale prices just posted their hottest month since early 2022

September PPI jumped 1.3% month over month, vs about 0.6% expected, the biggest monthly rise since March 2022 per BLS

Over the past year, final demand prices are up 6.3%, the largest 12-month gain since December 2022 and well above the 5.5% consensus

Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, still ran hot at 0.7% on the month and 5.0% year over year

Energy did most of the damage. Final demand energy rose 10.8% in September and gasoline alone jumped 20.3%, with BLS tying a big chunk of the goods spike to the Middle East supply shock

Goods rose 2.6% and services 0.8%. Retail sales also beat at 0.8%, but excluding autos and gas stations the gain slowed to about 0.25%, a sign fuel is crowding out other spending

This lands a day after hotter CPI. CME FedWatch now prices roughly a 34% chance of a hike at the late October meeting, up from under 18% a week ago

Two hot inflation prints in two days, with energy still bleeding into goods and freight, make it harder for the Fed to look through the war spike. The market is already repricing October, and the next few data prints will decide whether this is a one-off oil shock or a broader reacceleration

Source: StockMarket.News