2024 Week 17 Weekly Report

Portfolio NAV at the beginning of the year: HKD 2,307,716

Latest portfolio NAV: HKD 2,972,827

YTD return: 28.8%

Hang Seng Index YTD return: -3.54%

S&P 500 YTD return: 6.92%

Nasdaq YTD return: 6.11%

Portfolio

The portfolio rebounded significantly this week, with returns reaching 28.8%, once again approaching this year's high of 30%. If things go smoothly, I believe May will see another new high, and I hope to share good news by then.

Currently, the portfolio remains 100% invested in U.S. stocks. Since it is primarily for members to reference, imitate, and follow, it avoids extreme volatility and won’t suddenly shift to 100% Hong Kong stocks. However, as early as mid-February and March, I mentioned that the Hong Kong stock market had improved significantly and was investable. I’ve been actively exploring Hong Kong stocks myself and later introduced a Hong Kong version of the "Bubble Dragon 7 Heroes Portfolio" for members.

That portfolio has been held for less than a month, and the overall return is already around 10%, with the top-performing stock up 37%. Many fellow investors can attest to this—it’s not just empty talk.

Returning to my public portfolio, it’s currently fully invested, undeterred by market fluctuations. I’m confident in the holdings and believe they will continue to outperform the market in the near future.

A detailed review of the portfolio holdings is shared in the Patreon members' area:

Hong Kong Stock Market

• This week, the Hong Kong market broke through again, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 17,651 points, marking a new high for the year. It’s been a long time since the Hong Kong market felt this healthy. In previous years, there were similar surges, but they weren’t sustainable—sometimes gaining a thousand points in a day, only to slowly retreat later.
• The current rally feels much healthier and can create a wealth effect. How many people actually benefit from a thousand-point surge in a day? The biggest beneficiaries are those who bought at the peak—the so-called "bag holders." Few are willing to chase the rally, and the amounts involved aren’t large.
• If you’ve followed my posts, you’d notice my shift in attitude toward Hong Kong stocks in February and March, when I started to see them as investable. I’ve redirected funds from Japanese and U.S. stocks to core Hong Kong stocks and have benefited from this wave.
• The breakthrough past 17,200 points is a genuine one. But honestly, have the fundamentals of the biggest stocks changed? Not really. It’s more about capital inflows—a liquidity-driven market.
• Liquidity-driven markets are the hardest to predict. As long as capital keeps flowing in, Hong Kong stocks could theoretically keep rising, especially with U.S. and Japanese stocks in consolidation phases, not exactly bullish.
• That said, I’m not blindly optimistic. My personal target is to see if 18,000 points can be reached. If the investment landscape shifts further, 20,000 points this year isn’t impossible.

U.S./Japanese Stock Markets

• Another volatile week for U.S. stocks. The market was spooked by Thursday’s GDP and PCE data—weak growth and strong inflation, reminiscent of 2022.
• Stocks initially plunged but stabilized later, showing investors’ reluctance to exit the market, with buying support at lower levels.
• Friday’s PCE data slightly exceeded expectations, but the market took it as good news—just 0.1% higher, nothing alarming, providing short-term relief.
• It’s like a hypochondriac being told by a doctor, "You’re sick, but not in immediate danger." You’d feel more relieved than worried, especially after days of anxiety.
• Markets trade on expectations. When everyone fears the worst and it turns out less bad, it’s seen as positive—human psychology is fascinating.
• This earnings season, Tesla’s results were underwhelming, but hopes for Robotaxi, robots, and the affordable Model 2 sparked a short-term bottom. Long-term prospects depend on sales and autonomous driving progress, which are uncertain.
• Meta and Google both reported strong earnings, but Meta’s stock, after a two-year rally, plunged on slightly weaker guidance. Google, a more stable performer among the "Magnificent 7," rose post-earnings.
• Overall, the market trended upward this week. Many expected further declines after the rebound, but I lean toward the bottom being in, with consolidation more likely than another drop.

The above represents personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice.

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