---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/25164480.md"
description: "The return of Trump has left China with no policy options but one path—reflation, which includes asset reflation and price reflation.For China's economic growth, there are only two real drivers: leveraging and strong external demand. These are the fundamental sources of demand creation.Next year, external demand itself will weaken marginally. If Trump wields the tariff stick again, China will have to focus on internal reforms. Moreover, demand stimulation must target end-user demand, not intermediate investment demand.Over the past two years, Chinese assets have remained undervalued with high dividends. In 2025, cyclical and tech-upgrading sectors are likely to present opportunities (refer to the 2018 trade war).The path is singular and clear, making the game simple. Next year, the focus will likely be on cyclical sectors, especially in trading terms—front-loading policy expectations and back-loading implementation effects.The policy game has already begun today. In terms of timing, consumer goods, especially service-related consumption, must lead the cyclical upturn, as service consumption holds greater potential in China's domestic demand.Moreover, the results of the 8th meeting will soon be released, followed by the Central Economic Work Conference at year-end. Thus, consumer sectors are poised for an initial rally. With valuations at low levels, Dolphin Research believes now is the window to position in cyclical sectors, recommending focus on consumer sectors with solid fundamentals and low valuations. $YUM China(YUMC.US) $NONGFU SPRING(09633.HK) $TSINGTAO BREW(00168.HK) $HAIDILAO(06862.HK) $CHINA RES BEER(00291.HK) $ANTA SPORTS(02020.HK) Note that these overseas assets are purely listed in Hong Kong.Internet consumer stocks, mostly listed in the U.S. with higher U.S. capital weightings, face concerns about becoming part of the U.S.-China play. Thus, they need to digest negative sentiment first, but opportunities may emerge afterward."
datetime: "2024-11-07T03:34:44.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/25164480.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/25164480.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/25164480.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# The return of Trump has left China with no policy …


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## Comments (27)

- **A.N · 2024-11-07T15:32:33.000Z**: Good news is bad news when it's realized
- **国服坑比 · 2024-11-07T14:49:29.000Z**: 额
- **贝莱德大老虎 · 2024-11-07T12:45:08.000Z**: gghhhh
- **趟股海 · 2024-11-07T11:05:54.000Z · 👍 3**: Domestic so-called tech companies are all the kind that make a quick buck and prepare to run away, then start another one to collect money. So in reality, the only real winners in this bull market are consumer stocks. There's only one path up Mount Hua - a single thread to make money.
- **新用户_QIMSsf1 · 2024-11-07T09:44:30.000Z · 👍 1**: @PortAI what do you think?
  - **LongbridgeAI** (2024-11-07T09:44:30.000Z): From the current economic situation, domestic policy choices do face certain challenges. As external demand weakens marginally, the domestic economy may need to rely more on stimulating domestic deman
- **比奇堡交易员-章鱼哥 · 2024-11-07T09:00:34.000Z · 👍 5**: Don't listen to any domestic media reports about Chinese concept stocks
- **得胜 · 2024-11-07T08:57:51.000Z · 👍 1**: Consumption leads the way before the troops move, you can do it, I can do it, everyone can do it
- **cyfloel · 2024-11-07T08:56:22.000Z · 👍 1**: How many trillions will be released this time
- **新用户_90QiPg · 2024-11-07T06:59:44.000Z**: 👍
- **[已注销] · 2024-11-07T05:01:51.000Z · 👍 18**: 所有人定投纳指就完事了，放弃一切中资中概
  - **Zchill** (2024-11-07T06:49:05.000Z): Don't hold any illusions about things related to that.
  - **噜噜的交易员** (2024-11-07T14:37:13.000Z): 稳当
- **昧旦 · 2024-11-07T04:28:11.000Z · 👍 7**: Finding evidence to fit the conclusion
- **珂朵莉盆满钵满！ · 2024-11-07T04:26:16.000Z · 👍 2**: 中国中免可以吧
  - **Dolphin Research** (2024-11-07T04:49:37.000Z): Pull back, let it drop. Domestic goods are still oversupplied, no need to rush to China Duty Free Group, feels like the performance can't hold up.
- **Daiii · 2024-11-07T03:59:37.000Z · 👍 1**: 👍
- **Oceanus · 2024-11-07T03:59:28.000Z · 👍 1**: What about Chinese concept stocks? 😅
  - **Dolphin Research** (2024-11-07T04:05:19.000Z): Chinese concept stocks need to digest the negative news first, but there should be opportunities later, right?
- **Dolphin Research · 2024-11-07T03:57:55.000Z · 👍 1**: 啤酒因为有 40%-50% 的场景是在现饮渠道上，所以也算是半个社服概念了。
  - **Zchill** (2024-11-07T04:02:35.000Z): Both Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese assets are uninvestable. Various price manipulations, control plays and divergent trends - Asian retail investors get played to death by foreign capital.
  - **最大的交易陷阱是报复** (2024-11-07T07:33:46.000Z): I keep hitting walls again and again😓
- **龙场悟道忘忧草 · 2024-11-07T03:47:02.000Z · 👍 3**: Consumer sector performed strongly today, with baijiu (Chinese liquor) stocks leading the gains in A-shares.
  - **Dolphin Research** (2024-11-07T03:57:07.000Z): 资金的反应速度太快了，昨天我还在私下说这个事情，结果今天立马全体拉起。
  - **龙场悟道忘忧草** (2024-11-07T07:15:46.000Z): No one can smell the trend earlier than them. Bought some Nongfu Spring today.