2024 Week 51 Weekly Report
Portfolio value at the beginning of the year: HKD 2,307,716
Latest portfolio value: HKD 4,576,922
YTD return: 98.3%
Hang Seng Index YTD return: 15.68%
S&P 500 YTD return: 24.34%
Nasdaq YTD return: 30.39%
As usual, the weekly report will include a free section sharing market views and a Patreon member-exclusive section on stock holdings.
Portfolio
The portfolio return dropped from a peak of around 105% last week to a low of about 90%, rebounding to 98% by Friday. This week was quite volatile for the portfolio, given the full-position trading and the extreme market volatility. Many individual stocks saw swings of over 20%, so the portfolio's volatility was relatively higher. However, I remain confident in my holdings and decided to hold on.
Market
The U.S. stock market was very eventful this week. Before Wednesday, the market was relatively optimistic, still playing a treasure-hunting game—once one stock was hyped, investors moved to the next. But after the FED meeting on Wednesday, the market sentiment shifted dramatically. I’d describe it like a theater fire: when one chair catches fire and someone yells "Fire!", panic spreads, leading to a stampede. That’s exactly what happened Wednesday night—the market plummeted from top to bottom after the meeting. Thursday saw a high open but low close, with panic lingering. By Friday pre-market, many stocks were down another 3-5%. However, the better-than-expected PCE data and bargain-hunting inflows led to a significant rebound.
But after Friday’s rebound, the market pulled back again, and sentiment wasn’t very positive. With BTC-related assets falling again over the weekend, the rebound doesn’t look very promising. The real test will be Monday’s opening, as major capital flows happen during trading hours—weekends and pre-market moves aren’t reliable indicators.
That said, the overall optimism in U.S. stocks ended on Wednesday night. Going forward, I think the market will become more rational, focusing on individual stocks’ fundamentals rather than just hype. No matter the market, focusing on fundamentals and selecting high-quality stocks is always the right move.
The ideal scenario for U.S. stocks is a sideways consolidation next week to digest this year’s gains, especially the recent surge. The less ideal scenario would be a post-rebound drop on Monday, even breaking support levels, which would drag the market back into a bottom-searching phase and prolong the pain.
As for Hong Kong stocks, there’s not much to share—it’s still dull. No major policies have been introduced, especially for the property sector. The overall economy remains sluggish, so there’s no big rally, but individual stocks present opportunities. I’ve mentioned this for weeks now—many Hong Kong stocks are slowly gaining traction. So, the theme is "trade stocks, not the market"; the index itself holds little investment value.
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Disclosure: I hold related stocks and may buy/sell in the future.
Disclaimer: I am not licensed by the Hong Kong SFC. This content is for personal sharing only, not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation. Investments carry risks, including potential loss exceeding principal. Consider if investments suit your financial situation. All decisions and outcomes are your responsibility. Consult your advisor. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of referenced materials—please verify independently.
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