What is the current market trend for major asset classes?

Portfolio rules: Stocks, bonds, commodities ETF Link C, rebalanced every 2 weeks to 2 months. Over the past 2 years, the portfolio has returned 23.09% with a maximum drawdown of 7.89%.

Introduction: Where are various assets heading now? A brief discussion on major asset trends.

Stocks

1. A-shares

Buying strategy:① Buy the dip, ② Pyramid (22%+34%+44%), ③ Daily chart level.

Wait for the "Wave 53" (the 3rd wave within the 5th wave uptrend) to start;$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

2. U.S. stocks

1. Friday (12.20): There's a 30+% chance of a drop on December's "Quadruple Witching Day". Core PCE data came in lower than expected, which is bullish for stocks. The S&P 500 opened lower at the "gap support" level post-election, partially filled the gap,then rallied strongly with high volume to close higher;

2. Before New Year: Likely to see a "Santa Rally" with high probability of gains; (The "Santa Rally" refers to the last week of December and first week of January, historically showing about 80% probability of gains.)

3. January: Likely to retest the previous high of 6099.97 points;

Bonds

1. Government bonds

Unlikely to reach 1.6% in one go. The 10Y active bond has pulled back from the 1.6% range to currently 1.7%. The pace depends on the central bank; (30-year Treasury ETF, a high-probability & high-return investment tool) Good for trading;

2. U.S. Treasuries

10Y U.S. Treasuries above 4.6% present trading opportunities (U.S. Treasury TLT, is it worth investing?). Currently positioned as a rebound, not a reversal, with institutional pricing centered around 3.9%-4.1%.$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)

Commodities

1. Gold

Wrote an article late last year (Gold ETF, investing in 2024's big beta). Gold has risen 26.30% this year. Throughout the rate-cut cycle, continue to be long gold. Gold has too many macro factors, just use the "pyramid" (22%+34%+44%) method to buy the dip.$iShares Gold Trust(IAU.US) $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

2. Bitcoin

Has achieved the first phase of the rally target (Bitcoin breaks through $80,000 per coin!), now heading towards the second phase target.$iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US) $2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF(BITX.US)

3. Crude oil

Wait for U.S. fiscal policy to land and economic recovery to potentially boost oil demand; but the effectiveness of Treasury nominee Bessant's "3+3+3" policy and whether oil supply can increase remains debatable. Oil supply-demand analysis (S&P Oil & Gas ETF, the only oil & gas ETF besides 8 crude oil LOFs), but expect oil to perform better in 2025 than 2024, and better in 2026 than 2025.

4. Soybean meal

Last soybean meal bottom-fishing was at good prices (Soybean meal prices hit new lows, is a rebound coming?).$Teucrium Soybean(SOYB.US)

Domestically, there's only one soybean meal ETF(159985). Currently, the basis is strengthening with expectations of an oversold rebound.

Overnight foreign markets were closed for holidays. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meals continued slight rebounds. Soybean meal futures saw reduced positions while prices rose for the 6th consecutive day. Rapeseed meal also rose slightly, with futures prices reaching early December highs while open interest remained around 800,000 contracts without significant decline. Recent stabilization in Brazil premiums and pre-holiday restocking have improved downstream feed companies' purchasing enthusiasm, leading to slight gains in both meals.

The domestic market is in traditional restocking season. Although overall sentiment is weaker than previous years, low-inventory retailers and feed mills still have rigid demand, keeping soybean meal spot prices and nearby basis stable. With Brazil premiums and U.S. soybean futures stabilizing, both meal futures and spot prices have rebounded collectively. However, record Brazilian soybean production still casts doubt on upside potential.

For soybean meal outlook: With recent stabilization in Brazil premiums and U.S. soybeans, short positions in soybean meal futures have started unwinding, leading to price gains. Watch whether 2650 can be broken effectively. Further short covering could lead to more rebound potential.

FX

USD/CNY

Refer to previous article views (CNY exchange rate? Stocks, bonds, gold & U.S. Semi).

Closing notes: Limited capability, FOF framework, mainly researching U.S.-China ETFs, AI "era tickets" and "big cake" BTC. Daily research insights are shared in the community. Welcome to comment.