Rate Of ReturnTwo wins in one day, time to feast.
This afternoon, $SOFT INTL(02569.HK) announced the lottery results. I applied for 20 lots and got 1 lot.
The gray market trading will start at 16:15 tomorrow afternoon, expecting to make a small profit. Let's calculate how much the stock needs to rise for you to break even.
If you applied without margin financing, your costs include a 1.0085% lottery fee and the platform and commission fees charged by the broker.
Different brokers have slightly different platform and commission fees. Here’s an example based on the broker I used for this application:
The total fees, including commission, platform fee, transaction levy, and stamp duty, add up to about HKD 21. The market value of the allotted Shubao International shares is HKD 2,550, so the fee ratio is 21/2550=0.83%.
The total cost is 1.0085% (lottery fee) + 0.83% (selling fees) = 1.84%. So, if you applied with cash, you’ll break even if the gray market rises by more than 2% tomorrow.
If you applied with margin financing, on top of the 1.84% cost, there’s an additional HKD 100 margin application fee, which is 100/2550=3.92%. So, the total cost for margin financing is 1.84% + 3.92% = 5.76%.
Therefore, if you applied with margin financing, you’ll break even if the gray market rises by more than 6% tomorrow.
I applied with cash this time, so a 2% rise in the gray market tomorrow would be a small win. The Hong Kong market has been sluggish recently, with continuous pullbacks, so I’m not expecting much.
Recently set up some grid orders for U.S. stocks$Amazon(AMZN.US) $Disney(DIS.US), and did some simple stress tests. The holdings will be adjusted dynamically:
The last two columns are hidden as everyone’s situation differs in terms of investment ratio and tolerance for floating losses.
Setting up small conditional orders for observation is essential—it’s now my standard investment method.
Start with small observations and increase positions when opportunities arise. This can improve returns while keeping the investment experience comfortable.
Idle cash can also be managed for returns. Currently, USD money market funds yield 4%-5%, which is quite attractive:
That said, it’s worth noting that trading friction costs in Hong Kong and U.S. stocks are significantly higher than in A-shares.
For high-frequency trading like grid strategies in A-shares, fees are negligible, but for Hong Kong and U.S. stocks, you need to account for platform and commission fees for each trade.
Yesterday, I applied for EVE Energy’s convertible bond and got allotted today:
Due to major shareholders abandoning their subscriptions, the allotment rate for this new bond surged to 39.7%.
This is my second allotment this year. The last one was Yushui’s convertible bond, which also saw a high allotment rate due to major shareholders dropping out. I made HKD 210 selling it on the first day.
So, don’t worry about the bond breaking just because major shareholders dropped out. If you got allotted, just wait for the listing to make some profit.
Content creator:Dolphin Index Valuation
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