
Beyond the abyss lies another abyss. Last night was just a brief respite on the way down for U.S. stocks.

The slight "pullback" yesterday was just a breather on the way down for U.S. stocks, and there's more decline ahead.
The market's stress response to tariffs is intense. Back in September 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed, everyone thought it was just another ordinary economic recession, but the market's stampede quickly turned it into a global financial crisis. Even after Lehman Brothers fell, the crisis continued to spread. The problem now is that the market faces far greater uncertainty from Trump's team than it did back then, making it difficult to handle so many unknowns and variables.
Comrade Trump's claim that long-term trade deficits are a national crisis, weakening U.S. industry and draining national wealth, is undeniable. During his first term, measures like imposing tariffs, deregulating, cutting taxes, and unleashing U.S. energy potential were all aimed at making America great again, from local economies to Wall Street. Trump himself denies intentionally crashing the market, and I don’t doubt that—but the cost is even less doubtful, as it will inevitably be massive and profound.
Last night, aside from the Nasdaq's slight 0.1% gain, ending two consecutive days of losses, both the Dow and the S&P 500 fell for three straight days, with losses widening. With the government standing by, the risk of a major crash grows higher. When the VIX volatility index is low, risk models (VaR) still allow funds to hold risky assets. But once the VIX rises, institutional investors—especially quant funds—are forced to sell risky assets to maintain strict risk control. Eventually, volatility and selling create a vicious cycle, even dragging down high-quality assets in indiscriminate attacks. European stocks, which were performing well just months ago, suddenly took a severe hit last week.
The financial system has a domino effect, and this could spill over into credit markets, escalating the damage to systemic risk levels. Somewhat similar to the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, much of today’s lending doesn’t come from tightly regulated banks but from private credit markets, which lack oversight. A wave of defaults could trigger systemic risks, turning localized shocks into a full-blown financial crisis. This has already spread to the U.S. Treasury market—the linchpin of the global financial system. When panic peaks, companies hoard cash instead of investing, even destabilizing safe havens like Treasuries. The "repo market" could freeze, as it did during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis. If the U.S. government forces short-term Treasury holders to switch to long-term bonds, it’d be something only a bankrupt company would do. If even the credibility of the Treasury market is questioned, the resulting crisis could dwarf the 2008 financial tsunami.
Back when Trump won the election, investors cheered—but how many foresaw tariffs on this scale and intensity? All I can say is, beneath the abyss lies another abyss.$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)
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