$NIO-SW(09866.HK)

I. Key Points on the Press Conference and Stock Price Trend

1. Historical Patterns:

A single press conference by Nio cannot alter its medium-to-long-term trend; the stock price usually fluctuates with the broader market (e.g., the post-L60 press conference rise was driven by a general uptick in Chinese assets).

Beware of emotional trading: Shareholders should remain calm and avoid excessive optimism or panic due to short-term events.

2. Current Phase Assessment:

Nio has emerged from its trough and is in the early stages of an upward trend, though the process will include pullbacks (rise → correction → rise again).

Key rule: "Good news at highs = bad news; good news at lows = real good news; good news during consolidation phases sets the direction."

II. Pre- and Post-L60 Press Conference Trading Strategy

Develop a plan based on the three-day trend before the press conference (Monday to Wednesday):

If the stock falls on high volume: Reduce positions to hedge risks and buy back during post-conference low-volume dips (low probability).

If the stock falls on low volume: Hold and observe, deciding whether to exit on the day of the press conference (medium probability).

If the stock surges to 6-7 yuan on high volume: Take profits in batches and avoid chasing highs (medium probability).

If the stock rises slightly/consolidates: Hold until the press conference clarifies the direction (high probability).

III. Technicals and Medium-to-Long-Term Trends

1. Institutional Activity:

Institutions have spent three months accumulating positions and won’t exit quickly, aiming to build a larger rally.

Trend forecast: The daily chart suggests a potential rise to 6-7 yuan, followed by wide fluctuations to form weekly support.

2. Reversal Logic:

After a "double whammy," the first reversal rally needs to be swift and strong (possibly doubling) to attract bullish capital and confirm a shift from bearish to bullish.

Medium-to-long-term references: Futu, Pinduoduo—oscillating uptrends with higher lows and highs.

IV. The L60 Brand and Nio’s Strategic "Reassurance"

1. Product Development Patterns:

First-gen products (e.g., L60) enjoy high market tolerance; successful brands evolve through iterations (e.g., Xiaomi/Huawei/Apple’s early products).

L60 is poised for greater success: L60 targets mass-market appeal (like Volkswagen), while Nio focuses on premium segments (like Audi/Porsche), with shared R&D and user conversion creating synergy.

2. Core Investment Logic:

Enterprise value hinges on: commitment to R&D; market demand alignment ("staying grounded"); meeting consumption upgrades ("aspiration for better living").

Conclusion: Nio’s dual-brand strategy aligns with long-term growth.

$NIO-SW(09866.HK)