Total Assets
Rate Of ReturnFinal Summary:
Short-term: The press conference does not change the trend. Operate flexibly based on specific movements and avoid emotional decisions.
Medium to long-term: Nio has bottomed out, and a weekly reversal trend has begun, with the first target at 6-7 yuan. The Ledo brand's iteration path is clear, and the dual strategy supports long-term value.
Risk warning: If the stock rises sharply and then falls with high volume, be wary of a pullback, but the long-term trend line has become strong support.
Core principle: Grasp the essence of "positive development," ignore short-term fluctuations, and maintain a calm mindset.$NIO-SW(09866.HK)
$NIO-SW(09866.HK)
I. Key Points on the Press Conference and Stock Price Trend
1. Historical Patterns:
A single press conference by Nio cannot alter its medium-to-long-term trend; the stock price usually fluctuates with the broader market (e.g., the post-L60 press conference rise was driven by a general uptick in Chinese assets).
Beware of emotional trading: Shareholders should remain calm and avoid excessive optimism or panic due to short-term events.
2. Current Phase Assessment:
Nio has emerged from its trough and is in the early stages of an upward trend, though the process will include pullbacks (rise → correction → rise again).
Key rule: "Good news at highs = bad news; good news at lows = real good news; good news during consolidation phases sets the direction."
II. Pre- and Post-L60 Press Conference Trading Strategy
Develop a plan based on the three-day trend before the press conference (Monday to Wednesday):
If the stock falls on high volume: Reduce positions to hedge risks and buy back during post-conference low-volume dips (low probability).
If the stock falls on low volume: Hold and observe, deciding whether to exit on the day of the press conference (medium probability).
If the stock surges to 6-7 yuan on high volume: Take profits in batches and avoid chasing highs (medium probability).
If the stock rises slightly/consolidates: Hold until the press conference clarifies the direction (high probability).
III. Technicals and Medium-to-Long-Term Trends
1. Institutional Activity:
Institutions have spent three months accumulating positions and won’t exit quickly, aiming to build a larger rally.
Trend forecast: The daily chart suggests a potential rise to 6-7 yuan, followed by wide fluctuations to form weekly support.
2. Reversal Logic:
After a "double whammy," the first reversal rally needs to be swift and strong (possibly doubling) to attract bullish capital and confirm a shift from bearish to bullish.
Medium-to-long-term references: Futu, Pinduoduo—oscillating uptrends with higher lows and highs.
IV. The L60 Brand and Nio’s Strategic "Reassurance"
1. Product Development Patterns:
First-gen products (e.g., L60) enjoy high market tolerance; successful brands evolve through iterations (e.g., Xiaomi/Huawei/Apple’s early products).
L60 is poised for greater success: L60 targets mass-market appeal (like Volkswagen), while Nio focuses on premium segments (like Audi/Porsche), with shared R&D and user conversion creating synergy.
2. Core Investment Logic:
Enterprise value hinges on: commitment to R&D; market demand alignment ("staying grounded"); meeting consumption upgrades ("aspiration for better living").
Conclusion: Nio’s dual-brand strategy aligns with long-term growth.
$NIO-SW(09866.HK)
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