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PostsMARS Guess | Li Auto i8 sales may exceed expectations
After scouring most of the online reviews of the Li i8, it might be a car that institutions and analysts have severely underestimated.
In terms of appearance, the i8's overall design leans more towards balancing external wind resistance with interior space, attempting to achieve the interior comfort of an MPV with an SUV form factor. This gives families with two children and business travelers an additional choice between SUVs and MPVs.
Li Auto's core competitiveness lies in its deeply ingrained user-centric thinking and continuously evolving product capabilities.
When most people discuss competition between brands, they often overlook a crucial point: the founder's mindset. When Li Xiang posted his first video on a short-video platform with the title "Listen to Me," it indirectly showed that he had reconciled with his past angry self.
This is very similar to a young Steve Jobs, who had extremely high standards for products and objectivity. But as he aged, he realized he couldn’t control everything and gradually matured and relaxed.
The overall impression of Li Auto’s products can be summed up in one word: comfort. While competitors are racing to offer so-called "Queen’s Seats," as someone with chronic back pain like Hinton, sitting in a Li Auto seat remains the most relaxing and comfortable chair among all car models.
The reason Li Auto "never wins online but never loses in sales" largely stems from the team’s focus on refining details to create an exceptional user experience. Only when you talk to real Li Auto owners do you get the most honest answers about satisfaction.
A couple of days ago, I discussed the pre-order numbers for the i8’s launch night with a friend. He’s also bullish on Li Auto but gave a pessimistic forecast, believing that breaking 10,000 pre-orders would already be a great achievement, especially since the L6 only hit 10,000 pre-orders in 72 hours last year.
But two details are worth noting. First, the L6 launched during the lowest point of MEGA’s negative sentiment, yet it delivered over 300,000 units in its first year, averaging 25,000 monthly sales—a classic case of a slow start followed by strong performance.
Second, today’s pure electric SUV market is incomparable to the past. With Xiaomi YU7 setting a new industry record of 289,000 pre-orders in 3 minutes and a more mature ultra-fast charging infrastructure, consumer enthusiasm for pure electric SUVs has been fully ignited.
Both Li Auto and Xiaomi are companies with internet DNA, and the advantage lies in their ability to collect and analyze data efficiently, which provides the underlying momentum for Li Auto’s sustainable growth.
If I recall correctly, Li Auto was the first to say, "Delivery isn’t the end of the sales process but the beginning of the user experience." As autonomous driving data and algorithms improve, Li Auto owners’ product experience will evolve alongside technological advancements, which is the unique emotional value internet-driven carmakers offer users.
If Li Auto hits 30,000–50,000 pre-orders tonight, it will likely signal the i8’s initial success. If it surpasses 50,000, it could become the next blockbuster after the YU7.
Let’s wait and see what happens at tonight’s launch event.
Best wishes, July 29, Mars from Qinghe.
$LI AUTO-W(02015.HK) $Li Auto(LI.US)
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