Total AssetsXiaomi's stock price is about to experience a Davis double hit—timing may be locked in early October.
Xiaomi's stock price is about to experience a Davis Double Click—timing likely locked in early October
I. The Fundamental Logic of Value Investing
In capital markets, the Davis Double Click is the golden moment investors seek—when a company's earnings grow rapidly while the market simultaneously increases its valuation multiple, leading to exponential stock price gains.
The essence of value investing lies in identifying such "double-click" opportunities early, positioning before the market fully reflects improving fundamentals. Xiaomi is now at such a tipping point.
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II. Xiaomi's SU7 and YU7 Massive Orders & Capacity Expansion Signals
Xiaomi's automotive division is entering the delivery phase. The YU7 has garnered nearly 300,000 orders since launch, with high-end model lock-in rates rising steadily, and test-drive bookings and deposits remaining strong. The SU7 has cumulatively delivered 300,000 units.
More importantly, capacity expansion is accelerating—Phase 1 factory production is steadily ramping up, with delivery efficiency significantly improving; Phase 2 is under rapid construction, expected to release partial capacity ahead of schedule in Q4. This suggests monthly deliveries surge from September onward.
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III. Latest Sales Data: Sustained Market Heat
July data shows the SU7 series delivered over 8,500 units monthly, maintaining sequential growth, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 35,000. Amid fierce NEV competition, this not only stabilizes market expectations but also proves Xiaomi's product strength and delivery capabilities in the smart EV market.
This sustained growth will directly reflect in Q3-end to Q4-begin earnings, boosting investor confidence.
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IV. Solid Fundamental Foundation
Group-wide, Xiaomi's fundamentals show multi-pronged growth:
• Smartphones: Premiumization drives margin expansion;
• IoT & Smart Home: White goods and wearables sales climb, ecosystem solidifies;
• Internet Services: Global user base expands, high-margin ad & content growth;
• Automotive: Leap from zero to mass production materializes, forming a new revenue curve.
This multi-engine model enhances profit stability and justifies valuation premiums.
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V. Catalyst: September Flagship Phone Launch
Xiaomi's upcoming flagship showcases imaging, AI, and in-house chip advancements—not just hardware upgrades. Higher premium mix will lift margins further and drive bundled IoT/wearables sales.
Proximity to Q3-end means sales growth and sentiment could synergize, fueling early-October stock momentum.
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VI. IoT & Internet Services Dual Growth
IoT products continue explosive growth—air conditioners, refrigerators gain traction domestically/overseas; wearables topped 618 sales charts repeatedly.
Meanwhile, internet services (ads, subscriptions, gaming) grow across segments, with margins >70%, contributing high-quality profit growth.
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VII. Early October: Davis Double Click Window
Xiaomi's profitability now benefits from triple drivers: auto deliveries scale, flagship phones boost margins, IoT/internet services sustain profits.
Valuation-wise, confidence in auto capacity/sales execution, plus phone/IoT performance, may trigger multiple expansion by early October.
This convergence of earnings growth × valuation lift—the Davis Double Click—could amplify upside once sentiment aligns with earnings.
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