Multiple positive factors behind "The Return of the Fruit Concubine"! How to position after reaching a new high?
$Apple(AAPL.US) rose 3.94% on Monday and hit a new all-time high of 265.29 yesterday. Its total market cap reached $3.92 trillion, surpassing Microsoft to become the second-largest company by market value in the U.S., second only to NVIDIA.
It has now stabilized around 262. If profit-taking has been fully digested and trading volume remains stable, it may fluctuate around this level or experience a pullback. However, Q4 earnings will be released at the end of October, and Decode Brother estimates it will still be positive, so there's no need to rush. For those holding positions, consider taking small profits at 264-265, while waiting for the pre- and post-earnings trends and the earnings report itself.
At the same time, you can also look at put options, as Apple's digestion of the new high may lead to a pullback, and the earnings report's discussion of AI-related issues warrants attention.
The return of the "Apple Empress" is not luck—it's the result of long-term preparation.
Just over a week ago, Donald Trump suddenly fell ill again and responded to China's rare earth controls with tariffs. Subsequently, Tim Cook visited China, first riding the wave of Labubu's popularity, then personally appearing in a Douyin Apple livestream to promote the iPhone 17 Air, which goes on sale today, the 22nd! The iPhone 17 Air (China version) supports eSIM, but unlike the global version, it must also support physical SIM cards to comply with China's regulatory requirements.
Coinciding with this, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released eSIM-related plans, approving commercial trials for eSIM mobile services, with a focus on evaluating data security, fraud risks, and standardization.
Let’s review the new phone sales. The standard iPhone 17 saw a 31% year-on-year increase in sales in the first 10 days, with high cost-performance making it the biggest dark horse. The Pro Max saw a 12%-150% year-on-year increase, with the Pro series accounting for 60% of total sales. The iPhone 17 Air slightly outperformed the iPhone 16 Plus, but its delayed launch in China affected global data. Looking specifically at the Chinese market, first-week activations reached 1.03 million units, with the Pro/Pro Max accounting for 80%, showing local preferences. JD.com's first-hour pre-sales exceeded the iPhone 16's full-day pre-sales, with reservations exceeding 4.25 million units. The Air version sold out within minutes during pre-sales on October 17, and after its October 22 launch, inventory in Beijing/Shanghai stores was tight, with online deliveries delayed until November. Although Apple's summer sales fell 6%, the new product upgrades reversed the trend.
During this trip, Cook also met with China's Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng and Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao, demonstrating sincerity in cooperating with China and mitigating the impact of tariff trade frictions. Speaking of which, Trump expects the Sino-U.S. meeting to be successful but believes it may not happen. The ambiguity, combined with optimism and hope for a resolution, still reassures the market.
Improved macro policies, new phone momentum, top executives lowering their stance to successfully hype things up, and strong iPhone 17 sales—these are all positive factors.
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