Double the bet: One trillion dollars to keep a Musk
$Tesla(TSLA.US) Tesla (TSLA) opened at a low price on the 4th, then rose to 459. After a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the bears gained the upper hand, closing down 5.15%.
Tesla's daily K-line is in a sideways consolidation, stabilizing at high levels. The market is gearing up for the shareholder meeting on Musk's compensation package.
On November 6, Tesla will hold its 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting. The most eye-catching topic of this meeting is only one—Elon Musk's "2025 CEO Performance Award," a super compensation package with a potential value of $1 trillion.
From $56 billion to $1 trillion: An epic doubling story that began in 2018.
That year, Tesla was on the brink of bankruptcy, and Musk proposed a "crazy" compensation plan: Over the next 10 years, if he could push Tesla's market cap from $65 billion to $650 billion, he would be rewarded. No one believed he could do it at the time. By 2022, Tesla's market cap surged past $1.2 trillion, triggering the plan, and Musk was granted 304 million shares worth about $56 billion. But then came a dramatic reversal. In 2024, a Delaware court ruled the plan invalid due to "lack of board independence." Musk angrily relocated to Texas and pushed for a shareholder revote—72% approval. However, due to the old Delaware case, the $56 billion remains unclaimed, though the board used a temporary $2.9 billion "emergency fund." Musk is still tied up in this, but it also somewhat keeps him focused on Tesla.
Now, Tesla's board is back with an upgraded "2025 Plan": targeting a market cap of $8.5 trillion, delivering 20 million vehicles, 1 million Optimus robots, 1 million Robotaxis, 10 million FSD subscribers, and $400 billion in EBITDA. Tesla's legal disputes now fall under Texas jurisdiction, making the 2025 compensation plan safer. If all targets are met, Musk could receive about $1 trillion. But if even one target is missed, he gets nothing.
This is a bet on the future.
Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm publicly "canvassed votes": "If shareholders reject this plan, Elon may choose to step down as CEO. This would cause immeasurable damage to the company." This is not a threat; it's a real risk. Musk has already diverted significant energy to xAI, SpaceX, X platform, and even U.S. politics. If Tesla is no longer his "most important endeavor," he will indeed leave.
Despite yesterday's pullback, Decode Brother believes it was due to voting anxiety causing some investors to take profits early and ( accumulation. After all, MAA's bullish alignment remains healthy. Today may see further volatility due to sentiment, but a dip to 440-442 could be a buying opportunity.
Compensation plan passes → Musk stays → Tesla's "AI narrative" has a promising future → Tesla unlocks an $85 trillion market cap—this is the ideal scenario. Just the approval of the compensation plan could be a positive catalyst for the stock, with partial profit-taking at 470-475.
Compensation plan fails → Musk is highly likely to leave—no need to say more. In this case, Tesla's stock could "face a sell-off of over 10%," so set stop-loss ranges carefully.
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