---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36468826.md"
description: "Xiaomi Quick Interpretation: Xiaomi's performance this quarter generally met market expectations, with improvements in revenue and gross margin mainly driven by the automotive business. Specifically, traditional businesses are under significant pressure, while the automotive business contributes the current main increment. ① Traditional Business: The company's mobile phone business declined again year-on-year this quarter, with a slight increase in mobile phone shipments, but the average price of mobile phones continued to decline, which is actually a sign of intensified competition.  On the other hand, the previously high growth of the IoT business, a major driver of the company's traditional business, has no longer been sustained this quarter, with growth slowing to single digits. After the tightening of state subsidies (changed to coupon grabbing or lottery), it has significantly affected the demand in the terminal market, directly impacting the logic of the company's traditional business recovery. Currently, coupled with the impact of rising storage prices, the company's mobile phone gross margin has fallen to around 11% this quarter. If storage prices continue to rise next year, it will directly pressure the company's performance next year; ② Automotive Business: The high growth performance of Xiaomi's automotive business in the financial report is mainly due to past backlog orders. From a dynamic perspective, the company's production capacity and orders should be considered together. Xiaomi's automotive deliveries reached 48,000 units in October, indicating that the company currently has a monthly production capacity of nearly 50,000 units. However, the company's current weekly order situation has fallen to 4-5k units, corresponding to only about 20,000 new orders per month. In other words, this means that the company is consuming about 30,000 units of 'backlog orders' each month. Considering the ramp-up situation of the company's second-phase factory, if the company continues to have 4-5k weekly orders, then by mid-next year, the company's 'backlog orders' will be exhausted. At that time, the logic of the company's automotive business will shift from 'supply shortage' to a demand-driven 'supply surplus'. Overall, 'tightening of state subsidies', 'rising storage prices', and 'decline in weekly orders' are all recent negative factors for Xiaomi, directly affecting market expectations for the company next year. Currently, Xiaomi is also in a 'vacuum period' for new products, with new mobile phones already released and no new automotive products recently. If there is no strong response to the above negative factors, it will be difficult for Xiaomi to gain market confidence at this stage. For more information, please follow Dolphin Research's subsequent detailed commentary and management minutes. $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) $XIAOMI-WR(81810.HK) $Xiaomi Corporation(XIACY.US)"
datetime: "2025-11-18T10:56:07.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36468826.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/36468826.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/36468826.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# Xiaomi Quick Interpretation: Xiaomi's performance …


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## Comments (85)

- **来个蛋炒饭 · 2025-11-19T04:38:06.000Z · 👍 1**: There are quite a few short sellers
- **husar · 2025-11-19T01:35:52.000Z**: Xiaomi, go for it!
- **新用户_IcgGX · 2025-11-18T14:40:09.000Z**: This article can interpret how market makers manipulate the market for retail investors to see
- **暴富之王 · 2025-11-18T13:40:30.000Z · 👍 1**: When supply falls short of demand, you say production capacity is insufficient; when supply exceeds demand, you say there's a lack of backlogs. Fine.
- **so much · 2025-11-18T13:34:49.000Z**: Good good good
- **Q2duQhkmqZ · 2025-11-18T13:24:20.000Z · 👍 1**: Can it be in short supply for a lifetime? Even Tesla can't do that.
- **新用户厨子 · 2025-11-18T13:18:06.000Z**: It's good to have so many new orders every week even though new car deliveries take half a year to fulfill.
- **新用户厨子 · 2025-11-18T12:39:54.000Z · 👍 4**: That phone and car company's financial report are as good as Xiaomi's, yet they short Xiaomi every day. It's outrageous.
- **happyapple2025 · 2025-11-18T12:36:14.000Z · 👍 6**: Dolphin has a weird vibe, calling such an overperformance worthless
- **小碧 · 2025-11-18T12:20:44.000Z · 👍 2**: Where does the weekly order data come from? Is it accurate?
- **学习学习知 · 2025-11-18T12:19:47.000Z · 👍 2**: Does this mean the future growth expectations for Xiaomi are not visible? Has the third quarter already digested the future expected growth?
- **不要问啦 · 2025-11-18T12:04:31.000Z · 👍 2**: "It's hard for Xiaomi to gain market confidence at this stage" has nothing to do with "tightening state subsidies, rising storage prices, and declining weekly orders," right? Isn't it about vehicle safety, word-of-mouth fermentation, and AI expectations? It's a bit like Tian Ji's hor
- **鬣老二 · 2025-11-18T12:04:11.000Z · 👍 1**: The order will bottom out in the middle of next year. This analysis is quite accurate, but it's based on the assumption of no new models. What would you say if I told you we're about to release several new models soon?
- **新用户_Fe4LcQ · 2025-11-18T12:02:38.000Z**: Impressive, the market's current expectations have directly extended to bearish expectations for next year.
- **长桥VIP专属渠道 · 2025-11-18T11:56:50.000Z · 👍 4**: The Q4 report is the real bomb, probably will keep falling until next March
  - **Macintosh Lee** (2025-11-18T13:19:49.000Z): Completely agree
- **元神 · 2025-11-18T11:53:26.000Z**: Basically in line with expectations... You're still being conservative, just say it's already at the end of its tether
- **lllll · 2025-11-18T11:51:39.000Z**: The reasonable valuation of Xiaomi is 600-800 billion, any higher would be a bit expensive
  - **Macintosh Lee** (2025-11-18T13:21:43.000Z): Reasonable range: 300-500 billion
  - **新用户_IcgGX** (2025-11-18T14:41:01.000Z): I think Tesla is worth at most 200 yuan
- **lalakokyo · 2025-11-18T11:43:38.000Z**: Want to see what Nio can say
- **Bluecat · 2025-11-18T11:42:40.000Z · 👍 1**: The stock price has already bottomed out, and you're still shorting it