---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37826319.md"
description: "$Tesla(TSLA.US) increasingly trades on AI, which makes up 60%+ of its valuation, with car sales now a sideshow—this is the core driver of its ~$1.5tn market cap. Even if 2025 full-year deliveries are only 1.64mn units (-8.6% YoY), marking a second straight annual decline, the stock still rocketed, peaking near $500.The logic is straightforward. The market no longer values it as a traditional automaker, but as an AI story.Based on Dolphin Research's prior estimates, under a base case Tesla's $1.3tn target mkt cap would see FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus contribute $776.4bn (60%). Hardware such as auto sales and energy storage would account for the remaining 40%. Under a bull case, Robotaxi alone could be worth $0.9–1.0tn, far exceeding the current valuation of the auto biz.FSD, via subscriptions, becomes a SaaS cash cow, with paid users reaching approx. 58mn by 2035 under the base case. Robotaxi could reshape mobility, and Optimus targets labor substitution; these AI avenues offer far more upside than car manufacturing. In 2026, Cybercab mass production should accelerate scaled Robotaxi ops. With Optimus approaching mass production, the AI valuation anchor would be reinforced further.Today, Tesla is selling the outlook for autonomy and Optimus. If Optimus or Robotaxi progress beats (e.g., regulatory approvals, order momentum and ramp), the market's anchor should shift faster from 'traditional autos' to 'AI growth', pushing the stock toward the bull-case level ($602)."
datetime: "2026-01-15T01:42:22.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37826319.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/37826319.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/37826319.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# $Tesla(TSLA.US) increasingly trades on AI, which m…


### Related Stocks

- [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md)

## Comments (8)

- **新用户X · 2026-01-17T09:53:30.000Z**: Getting rich by selling cars, you say you don't make money by selling cars?
- **犇犇犇犇犇犇 · 2026-01-15T15:37:33.000Z · 👍 1**: For those who study Tesla every day, what you wrote is entry-level
  - **陈卓 Frank** (2026-01-16T02:36:57.000Z): Then you tell me
  - **ERROR MUSK** (2026-01-16T05:22:43.000Z): What about energy storage?
- **加州2号旅馆 · 2026-01-15T11:41:51.000Z**: The long-tail problem cannot be solved in the short term. In the long run, Tesla definitely has a chance to bottom-fish, but the volatility will be huge, and the valuation given is still too high.
- **尼可拉斯古奇 · 2026-01-15T10:42:43.000Z**: Well written👍
- **橘子先生 · 2026-01-15T07:40:21.000Z**: Still need to check the financial report
  - **Dolphin Research** (2026-01-15T10:31:21.000Z): Soon, the week after next