---
title: "NVDA: Blowout results vs. a cold tape — Has the market's top darling fallen out of favor?---"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38895732.md"
description: "Nvidia (NVDA) reported Q4 FY2026 results after-hours in the early hours of Feb 26, 2026 (Beijing time). The quarter ended Jan 2026.1) Core operating metrics: $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) total revenue was $68.1bn, beating raised buy-side estimates of $67.0bn. Revenue rose $11.1bn QoQ, driven largely by Data Center as Blackwell scaled into mass production. GPM was 75%, expanding 160bps QoQ..."
datetime: "2026-02-26T00:58:47.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38895732.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38895732.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38895732.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# NVDA: Blowout results vs. a cold tape — Has the market's top darling fallen out of favor?---

NVIDIA (NVDA) released its FY2026 Q4 results (quarter ended Jan 2026) after U.S. market close in the early hours of Feb 26 Beijing time. Specifics as follows:

**1\. Core operating metrics**: $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) **total revenue of $68.1bn, above the raised buy-side bar ($67.0bn)**. QoQ revenue rose by $11.1bn, driven almost entirely by higher Blackwell shipments in Data Center.

**GPM was 75%, up 1.6pct QoQ, broadly in line with market expectations (74.8%)**. As B300 ramps in volume, company GPM has returned to the ~75% level.

**2\. Data Center**: **Q4 revenue was $62.3bn, with $11.1bn of QoQ uplift**. Growth was mainly from volume deliveries of the B300 series, with Blackwell now the dominant architecture across customer cohorts.

**By segment: Compute revenue was $51.3bn and Networking was $11.0bn**. Compute rose by $8.3bn QoQ, the largest contributor to topline growth. With Rubin moving into mass production in H2, Data Center should sustain high growth.

**3\. Gaming**: **Q4 revenue was $3.7bn, +46% YoY**, supported by downstream demand for RTX 50 series and related products. Versus AMD’s ~$0.8bn quarterly gaming revenue, NVIDIA retains a clear advantage in discrete GPUs.

**4\. Profit**: **Q4 core operating profit reached $44.2bn, +84% YoY**, benefiting from rapid revenue growth and margin recovery. **Core OPM has rebounded to 65%**.

**5\. Next-quarter guidance**: **FY2027 Q1 (1Q26) revenue guided to $78.0bn, up $11.0bn QoQ**, excluding China-related Data Center compute revenue, and above raised buy-side expectations ($73–76bn). **Next-quarter GAAP GPM guided to 74.9%, down 0.1pct QoQ**, broadly matching Street at 75%.

**Dolphin Research view: Short-term firing on all cylinders; ASIC competition remains a 'latent risk'**

NVIDIA delivered another strong print. QoQ revenue rose by $11.1bn, largely from Blackwell mass production in Data Center, and GPM returned to 75%.

**For next quarter, management guides revenue to $78.0bn (+/−2%), implying another ~$10bn sequential uplift, above the raised buy-side bar ($73–76bn)**. The current workhorses are B300/GB300, and with Rubin set to launch in H2, the company is poised to extend high growth.

Jensen Huang has outlined the **AI business outlook**, projecting **Blackwell+Rubin cumulative shipments of 20mn units by end-2026 (roughly ~$500bn revenue)**. As a result, the market is largely unconcerned about FY2027 performance.

**Beyond this quarter’s results and guide, investors care more about AI chip competition and the impact of customer in-house designs, margin trajectory post-2026, and downstream AI Capex**.

**a) Mega-cap Capex (primary buyers)**: Google and Meta both signaled continued increases in AI Capex in their 2026 outlooks.

**Aggregating Capex plans and outlooks, Dolphin Research estimates the four core cloud providers (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) could lift 2026 Capex to over $660bn, +62% YoY**.

**These cloud majors are the primary buyers of NVIDIA’s AI chips and underpin the company’s growth**. This forms the core base for NVIDIA’s earnings trajectory.

**b) AI chip competition**: Combining Data Center revenues across AI chip vendors, NVIDIA controls over 70% share, making it the clear industry leader.

**This reflects superior product strength and enables high margins (70%+)**. But customers also feel value capture is concentrated, prompting in-house chips or custom ASICs as more cost-effective alternatives.

Recently AMD and Meta signed an OpenAI-like 6GW agreement. The first 1GW is slated for H2 2026 deliveries, built on MI450 and sixth-gen AMD EPYC processors. As part of the deal, AMD will grant Meta a five-year warrant.

**Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and OpenAI are all developing in-house AI chips**. With the shift from training to inference, the gap between custom ASICs and NVIDIA GPUs is narrowing, and majors are focusing more on cost-performance.

Google Gemini + Broadcom already command close to ~10% share, increasingly challenging NVIDIA’s AI position. **This could pressure NVIDIA’s AI chip share and GPM post-2026, which the market fears may decline**.

**c) Rubin product progress**: NVIDIA’s current flagship is the B300 series, and **Rubin and CPX are planned for H2 2026 on TSMC 3nm**. Rubin Ultra will follow in 2027.

**At CES 2026, Jensen Huang disclosed Rubin GPU compute would reach 5x Blackwell (under NVFP4 inference)**. NVIDIA aims to keep leading the AI silicon race.

**Putting a+b+c together, NVIDIA still holds a clear lead in AI chips, but majors must weigh economics**. With GPM near 75%, NVIDIA captures much of the value chain.

**If downstream economics fail to pencil out, further investment could slow**. Hence majors pursue in-house and ASIC solutions for better cost-performance, and the view that NVIDIA’s dominance is 'hard to sustain' is gaining traction.

At NVIDIA’s current market cap (~$4.75tn), that equates to ~16x PE on FY2028 net profit (assuming two-year revenue CAGR +55%, GPM 74%, tax rate 18%). **Given prior AI outlook (Blackwell+Rubin), high growth in FY2027 is consensus, with debate mainly beyond FY2027**.

On PE alone, NVIDIA screens relatively cheap across the AI value chain, largely due to uncertainty in FY2028 and beyond (downstream Capex and competitive dynamics). **After a high-growth FY2027, the market broadly fears a notable deceleration, with ASIC rivals eroding share and margins**.

**Thus, even with recent Capex raises by the majors, the stock has mostly moved sideways**. For now, a 15–20x reference PE on FY2028 implies ~$175–240 per share.

**More than Capex, investors want management to address margin and competition concerns explicitly**. That would help lift the stock out of its 'relatively pessimistic' valuation.

On the other hand, despite worries over rising ASIC competition, near-term earnings visibility provides solid support. It also makes it difficult for the stock to break below ~$170 in the short run.

Dolphin Research’s detailed take on the print is below:

**I. NVIDIA business overview**

With sustained Data Center growth, it now accounts for nearly 90% of revenue. Gaming, once the mainstay, has been compressed to around 10%.

By segment:

**1) Data Center**: the key focus area, with core compute products including Blackwell and Hopper. Core customers are the cloud majors such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google.

**Data Center is in the Blackwell cycle, led by B300/GB300**. As Rubin ramps in H2, the cycle should transition from Blackwell to Rubin.

**2) Gaming**: NVIDIA remains the leader in discrete GPUs. Current products are RTX 40 and RTX 50, with customers including gamers and PC OEMs.

**3) Pro Visualization and Auto**: both small at ~1–2% of revenue. Pro Viz serves customers such as Pixar and Disney. Auto is centered on Orin and Thor, with customers including BYD, Xiaomi and Li Auto.

**II. Core KPIs: $10bn+ QoQ revenue uplift; GPM back to 75%**

**2.1 Revenue**: **FY2026 Q4 revenue was $68.1bn, +73% YoY, above the raised buy-side bar ($67.0bn)**. The $11.0bn QoQ increase was essentially all from Data Center and the Blackwell ramp.

**For next quarter, revenue guidance is $78.0bn, up $9.9bn QoQ, above the raised buy-side bar ($73–76bn)**. Growth remains driven by B300/GB300, with Rubin entering mass production in H2 2026.

**2.2 GAAP GPM**: **FY2026 Q4 GAAP GPM was 75%, in line with market expectations (74.8%)**. The prior margin 'air pocket' was mainly due to the H20 ban.

**Next-quarter GAAP GPM is guided to 74.9%**, matching Street at 75%. **With Blackwell ramping, GPM has returned to ~75%**.

**Management previously targeted 75% GPM for FY2027**. That offers some confidence, but the market remains wary of potential margin slippage beyond FY2027.

**III. Core business progress: Blackwell cycle; Data Center strength**

Helped by AI Capex, Data Center (Compute + Networking) now exceeds 90% of revenue. Gaming has been squeezed to below 10%.

**3.1 Data Center: FY2026 Q4 revenue was $62.3bn, +75% YoY**. It remains the company’s focal point, with growth driven by Blackwell volume ramp, aided by accelerated compute and AI demand.

Details: **① Compute revenue was $51.3bn this quarter, up $8.3bn QoQ, with B300 mass production contributing most of the uplift**. **② Networking revenue** was $11.0bn, up $2.8bn QoQ.

Cloud providers remain the largest buyers of NVIDIA’s AI chips, so their Capex forms the foundation of Data Center growth. **Based on discussions with Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon, Dolphin Research expects 2026 Capex to exceed $660bn, +62% YoY**, supporting high growth through FY2027.

**Versus downstream Capex, the market is more concerned about ASIC competition risk**. Even as majors raise Capex, NVIDIA shares have not rallied.

The core AI chip players today are NVIDIA, Broadcom and AMD, together holding over 90% share. **Training and inference have different dynamics; while NVIDIA GPUs retain a clear edge in training, inference can tolerate lower performance in parts, making Broadcom custom ASICs or AMD a more cost-effective choice**.

**NVIDIA’s high upstream margins pull a large share of value from the chain**. This directly impacts downstream project economics.

**If downstream economics do not improve, sustained AI Capex is at risk**. At 75%+ GPM, vendors have strong incentives to develop in-house chips or adopt ASICs to cut costs.

**Whether the current 75% GPM can be maintained is a key concern**, especially beyond FY2027. Mainstream forecasts see GPM gradually declining in FY2028 and thereafter.

**3.2 Gaming: FY2026 Q4 gaming revenue was $3.7bn, +46% YoY**, driven by RTX 50 series shipments. Gaming now accounts for less than 10% of revenue, with the spotlight squarely on Data Center.

**In gaming, NVIDIA still leads clearly over AMD**, which posted ~$0.84bn gaming revenue for the quarter.

**IV. Key financials: Scale effects driving continued profit strength**

**4.1 Core OPM**

**FY2026 Q4 core OPM was 65%, continuing to improve**, driven by higher GPM and lower OpEx ratio.

Decomposition is as follows:

**'Core OPM = GPM − R&D ratio − S&M/Admin ratio'**

**1) GPM: 75% this quarter**, up 1.5pct QoQ, helped by the Blackwell ramp. **2) R&D ratio: 8.1%**. Despite R&D up $0.8bn QoQ, the ratio declined on strong revenue growth.

**3) S&M/Admin ratio**: flat through the Blackwell cycle, **down to 1.9% of revenue this quarter**.

**Management guides next-quarter OpEx to $7.7bn**. Against revenue guidance, the OpEx ratio should edge down to ~9.9%, reflecting scale benefits.

**4.2 Core operating profit**

FY2026 Q4 net profit was $43.0bn, +94% YoY, with a 63% net margin.

**Given non-operating items in net profit, we focus on core operating profit (GP − R&D − S&M/Admin)**. Q4 core operating profit was $44.3bn, +84% YoY, with core OPM up to 65%.

Current growth is driven by the Blackwell cycle. With Rubin mass production in H2 per management’s AI outlook, NVIDIA should sustain high growth through FY2027.

<End here\>

Historical coverage from Dolphin Research on NVIDIA:

**Hot topics**

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Risk disclosure and statement: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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## Comments (3)

- **漏断人初静 · 2026-02-26T14:45:30.000Z**: Step on your left foot with your right foot, and you'll reach the sky sooner or later!
- **pho · 2026-02-26T01:56:43.000Z**: What does 1833 belong to?
  - **黯无天日** (2026-02-26T13:32:02.000Z): Same question