One trillion, thirty thousand points

The U.S. stock market went crazy again last night, or more precisely, it was a localized frenzy. The core catalyst came from a research report (and of course, it's also related to Trump's endorsement of Micron). The report released by UBS before the market opened directly doubled Micron's target price to $1625.

(Last night, Micron closed at $895.88, with its market cap already surpassing $1 trillion, ranking 13th in the global listed company market cap ranking. Following closely is SK Hynix, also a leader in memory chips). It's worth noting that Micron had already risen 240% last year and has risen another 200% so far this year. On top of this, UBS has significantly doubled its target price again.

Driven by this, the Nasdaq 100 Index has also reached a historic 30,000 points.

First, let's talk about the core logic of the UBS report: Micron is no longer just a company that profits from the upcycle of memory prices. Due to AI demand and long-term price/volume lock-in agreements, the stability of its profitability has been systematically elevated. Therefore, the valuation framework has shifted from "segment revenue multiples" to "overall earnings multiples." The core change is an upgrade from "HBM-specific revaluation" to "overall Micron revaluation." In a nutshell, it suggests memory is no longer a cyclical stock.

This judgment is subjective. I think it might still be difficult to escape the semiconductor cycle (typically a 4-year cycle), but the cyclicality might weaken. The super-cycle brought by this wave of super AI demand might extend the upward phase of this semiconductor cycle.

It was mentioned before that the U.S. stock market has a dedicated memory ETF (DRAM), which has doubled since its listing two months ago. It's worth mentioning that a new ETF focusing on "optical interconnect" technology was recently launched, named EUV. But don't be mistaken, ASML is not the highest weight within it. Huawei's Tao Law mentioned the day before yesterday also indicates that future semiconductor technology will shift from copper interconnects to optical interconnects.

(Not investment advice)

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