$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) AI is the most important hidden theme in this statement.

The most noteworthy part of this statement is not the absence of a rate cut, but the fact that the Fed has incorporated strong productivity growth and capital investment into its macro assessment.

This sentence doesn't directly mention AI, but Warsh confirmed during the press conference that it's precisely the unprecedented context of AI. Without AI, the US economy, at current interest rate levels, would likely have already entered a more pronounced cyclical downturn.

However, investments in data centers, computing power, GPU/CPU chips, HBM memory, cloud, power, cooling, gas turbines, power transmission and distribution, enterprise automation, and AI Agents collectively explain why the US economy hasn't rapidly declined under high interest rates. In traditional cycles, high rates suppress real estate, small and medium-sized businesses, consumption, white-collar hiring, and also corporate capital expenditures. But this time, AI CapEx has propped up the upper echelons of the economy.

This is also why the market cannot simply interpret this meeting with "the Fed is hawkish, so all growth stocks are doomed."

From a valuation perspective, AI is positive for the earnings component of stock market valuations because it brings revenue, orders, profits, and productivity expectations; but it may not be positive for the short-term rate cut path, as it makes the economy more resilient to high rates, giving the Fed more reason not to rush to cut rates.

This is the most counterintuitive aspect of the current macro environment. The more AI can support growth, the longer the Fed can wait to pivot. But as long as AI can truly translate into cash flow and capital returns, quality technology and AI infrastructure don't need rate cuts to survive.

Therefore, under the new framework, we can no longer lump all growth stocks together. Assets that can convert AI CapEx into real revenue, cash flow, and ROIC will continue to be sought by the market; assets that rely solely on rate cuts and liquidity narratives will be repriced. This is the internal logic of the new macro environment: the support for earnings and the pressure from rates come from the same source.

This is asset stratification in the Warsh era. This is why the Fed appears hawkish, yet the AI infrastructure chain can still strengthen, because the market hears not just "higher for longer," but also "capital investment remains strong." The selection mechanism is changing, not the overall bullish/bearish sentiment.