Sereniity
2026.06.23 03:41

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)IMO the photonics theme + continuous wave laser bottleneck is top-tier.

It's really like the market has short-term memory loss, forgetting that $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) has skyrocketed from $3 billion in 2024 to over $65 billion now.

Because $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) caused the EML bottleneck and forced an architectural change.

What we're actually seeing today is the same thing, the continuous wave laser + 1.6T/CPO shift, with Nvidia signing long-term agreements everywhere.

Now, amd$AMD(AMD.US)$AMD(AMD.US) + other cloud service providers are scrambling for the remaining sporadic resources with large long-term agreements for continuous wave lasers + optical components.

Goldman Sachs research forecasts the optical TAM in 2028 to be about 9-10x $154 billion, and the CPO TAM jumping from almost 0 to $91 billion in just two and a half years.

Don't magically disappear because of a month's trading volatility.

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) has a market cap of about $13 billion, $SIVE about $3 billion, other continuous wave laser players look strategically very valuable.

Next year I think we'll look back and say, "Why didn't I learn from Nvidia's EML the first time and pick up continuous wave laser-related stocks!"

Then likely in 1-2 years there will be some new small trend, like microled or quantum dots, and we'll see the same thing replay.

I think Sumitomo's prediction is correct, that continuous wave laser share + silicon photonics becomes the mainstream/dominant architecture.

Personally, I'm just focused on that bottleneck, as you can see with $Schroder Oriental Income Fund LTD GBP(SOI.UK)$SOI, $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US), $SIVE, and other stocks.

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