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Traded ValueStock Live Trading P220: People are capable of self-deception.
The daily chart has fallen for 6 consecutive days, and the monthly chart has fallen for several consecutive months. Since March, oil, defense, and precious metals have all seen small gains on positive news, only to accelerate their decline. These past few days, even positive news can't move the market. The Strait closed on Sunday, and I laughed heartily, waiting to share the spoils, but on Monday's open, oil and gold plummeted. The market has become immune to good news.
As a seasoned stock investor, this scene feels familiar. I remembered Li Mi at the Battle of Luoyang, I remembered Bitcoin in 2025, and I remembered my analysis from half a year ago. When confidence is gone, no amount of good news is useful; it will only continue to decline slowly. Weren't there enough positive catalysts for crypto last November? Wasn't the story compelling enough? The fact is, Ethereum and Bitcoin hit new lows, cheaper than before the institutions entered. The story was great, fooling so many retail investors, endless passersby, haha.
Current precious metals and oil are just like Bitcoin in December; they will likely fall for another six or seven months. But I can't bear to sell at a loss, and I'm too scared to short. I've clearly seen the truth, yet I'm still stubbornly trapped because I've lost too much to let go. Thinking carefully, gold and oil have already had their speculative run. I bought at a high price, betting on a new high after the main theme's correction. I lost the bet, refused to cut losses, and now I'm deluding myself into thinking it's value investing. Isn't that just my left and right brain fighting each other?
People deceive themselves and turn a blind eye to the truth. I still can't overcome myself.
(Article written at 11 AM. After finishing it, not only did I not cut my losses, I borrowed another 20,000 to add to my positions in Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and CNOOC. Then it crashed again in the evening.)
My judgment has never been wrong. Why go against myself?
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