Recently, global stock markets have plummeted, South Korean stocks triggered circuit breakers, the Nasdaq fell sharply, and AI hardware stocks collectively suffered heavy losses. Various analyses are flying around: some say funds are seeking safety before Micron's earnings report, some say profit-taking is pouring out, and some say it's a ripple effect. They all sound reasonable, but looking back today — these are all noise.

What is noise? Nobel laureate in economics Daniel Kahneman explains it very thoroughly in his book "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment."

Bias is that "habitual thought" you always have in your mind — for example, "memory stocks have risen too much, they should fall." This thought has a fixed direction, and you know where it comes from.

Noise is different. It's like standing in the middle of a wet market, with people shouting from all directions, and you can't make out what anyone is saying. Today, this analyst says there will be a surge tomorrow; tomorrow, that media outlet says the bubble is about to burst; the day after, there's news that institutions are selling. These voices are chaotic and directionless, with no pattern. The more you listen, the more panicked you become, and the more panicked you are, the less you know who to believe.

Kahneman said something very interesting: Where there is judgment, there is noise. As long as you are making decisions, noise will definitely exist. You can't avoid it, but you can choose not to listen.

The most frightening thing about noise is not its destructive power itself, but that it interferes with your judgment on truly important matters.

Micron releases its earnings tonight. Market expectations are for Q3 revenue of $35.2-35.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 279%; net profit is expected to be $24 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 1100%. This is what's truly worth paying attention to — the company's performance, not the market's sentiment.

Learn to ignore market chatter and wait for the earnings report.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)