Ahead-of-the-game analysis: The ironclad logic behind SK hynix's crash

I have already liquidated my position in SK Hynix after hours. At first, I was misled and thought SK Hynix was issuing new shares.

After waking up and thinking it over, it's completely different. The price of SK Hynix itself is benchmarked against its Korean counterpart, and there's already a 3% premium. Plus, with its gain of over ten percentage points yesterday, the premium has soared to 15%. That means, on Monday, the Korean stock must gap up 15% to maintain the premium in the US market, which is clearly impossible. The weakness of Micron and SanDisk has already proven this point—the memory cycle is over.

Many people say the US-listed SK Hynix has a small float, so it can have a premium. This is completely applying A-share market thinking to US stocks. In the A-share market, because retail investors can't buy Nasdaq or semiconductors directly, the premium for semiconductor ETFs can be hyped up to over ten percentage points.

But it's different for Americans. Can't they buy the genuine Korean SK Hynix? Can't they even buy a 2x leveraged long ETF on SK Hynix? Aren't these easy things to do? So why would they pay a premium of over ten percentage points for this SK Hynix?

Therefore, this SK Hynix farce is bound to end faster than the Starship farce. The Starship hype can still last for two or three days, after all, it's a new stock issuance, allowing for valuation hype. This SK Hynix is just an old stock. If you are really bullish on SK Hynix, you should buy the 2x leveraged long SK Hynix ETF, or buy the Korean SK Hynix, not the one with a premium of over ten percentage points. Isn't that sticking your head under someone else's knife, letting them slaughter you?