Short report smashes Bolong Energy, who's still betting on its turnaround on 7/28?

I've been following Borong Energy since June: On June 5th, when it crashed 9%, I followed the institutions buying calls in the market and went long. On June 22nd, it surged to a new high of $346, but near-close saw nearly $10 million in puts emerge. I flipped bearish then, saying if it couldn't grind higher at that level, I'd exit.

Looking back now, that short bet was right: The stock price plummeted from $346 in late June to yesterday's (7/13) close of $233, a 30% drop in just over a month. The trigger was a short report—on July 10th, a short-selling firm questioned the sustainability of its scandium supply chain, causing an intraday plunge of 10%. My earlier concern about "inability to grind higher at elevated levels" was essentially validated by this report.

More intriguing is yesterday's options flow: the short sellers who drove the price down haven't left, and the long buyers who took the hit are back. Someone in the market placed two orders, totaling $8.27 million, into $280 calls expiring at the end of July (DTE18), with a strike price a full 20% above the current price. This position is delicate: BE is set to report earnings on July 28th. The $280 calls clearly use the earnings report as a starting gun, betting on a sharp rebound.

I think the short thesis has mostly played out, and there's no need to buy these $280 calls.

Do the math—the premium per share for these calls is about $20.5, requiring a move to just over $300 to break even. That means the stock needs to rise another 29% from current levels just to get back to even. Expecting a single earnings report to deliver a 29% gain is unrealistic. What truly holds up is the fundamental story: Brookfield's solid $25 billion data center power supply deal, and the demand for AI power, which can't be disproven by one short report. That's the reason I'm willing to go long again. But that means waiting until around the July 28th earnings report to assess the near-term price structure from within the hole dug by the short report, not chasing an out-of-the-money lottery ticket that needs a 29% gain just to break even.

Next, I'm watching for two signals to act: First, if it breaks below $228 before earnings, it means the short report is still having an effect, and I'll stay short and avoid it. Second, if it can stabilize above $250 after earnings, I'll start scaling back into the long side based on fundamentals.