The classic script of 'taking profits + de-leveraging'

This round of adjustment is essentially a classic script of "profit-taking + deleveraging," not a fundamental crash.

The hardest-hit are precisely those that were the most crowded, most profitable, and most fully valued in the earlier stage—AI servers, HBM, advanced process chips, data center concepts, etc. Capital is using any slight movement during the earnings season (even relatively negative news like "growth slightly below expectations") to cash in floating profits and wash out leveraged positions.

Recent Observations

• Earnings Level: As you said, mainstream giants (NVIDIA, TSMC, AMD, ASML, and even some supply chain players) generally delivered solid results this earnings season. There were no large-scale misses, no signals of an industry cycle reversal, and AI capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance is still high. The data center isn't about to burn kerosene lamps; orders and demand are still there. It's just that the stock price has already priced in the optimistic expectations for the next 2-3 years to a large extent.
• External Triggers: South Korea was indeed an important trigger—a series of deleveraging measures such as interest rate hikes, increased margin requirements, and restrictions on minimum share purchases directly impacted the global semiconductor industry chain (Samsung and SK Hynix are key HBM players). Domestic margin financing is also relatively fragile, amplifying volatility at the slightest sign of trouble. July itself is a volatile window (earnings + macro data + policy games).
• Historical Script: From January 2024 to now, this kind of "falling like the end of the world" scenario has already played out several times. Each time, a bunch of people shout "the AI bubble has burst," but over time, companies with real performance, barriers, and orders eat back the pullbacks.

How to View the Current Situation?

Short-term: Volatility will continue, and the period before August may be a process of "digesting floating positions + waiting for new catalysts." Don't torture yourself by staring at the day's K-line and account net worth. The market is best at creating fear and making people hand over their chips.

Medium-term: If you hold companies that truly have earnings realization and genuine industry trends, and the core logic hasn't been disproven, then continue holding. The characteristic of tech stocks has never been linear growth, but "rising as if to heaven, falling as if to zero." However, the long-term winning probability lies with those companies that can continuously verify growth.

Risk Reminder:

• If there is a real macro negative (like a hard landing of the US economy or long-term high interest rates suppressing CapEx), that's another matter. But for now, it hasn't reached that level.
• Crowdedness still needs attention. Sectors with high leverage at elevated levels will hurt more during adjustments but often have greater elasticity afterward.

Watch the market less, read more industry reports, company orders, and capital expenditure guidance. Time is on the side of those who are not scared away—this statement has been repeatedly verified in the tech bull market of the past few years.

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