Jul 16 at 11:01 PM
Last night's semiconductor sell-off was brutal. I came across an analysis today that attributes the essence to "profit-taking + deleveraging," not a fundamental collapse. The trigger was in South Korea: rate hikes and tighter margin requirements.
Honestly, I believed it when I read it, but then I thought about it—I seem to believe every time. When prices drop, I buy into "technical correction"; when they rise, I buy into "sound logic." In the end, I just believe whoever speaks last.
Coincidentally, Longbridge released an agent feature with anomaly analysis. I fed this whole paragraph into it.
What truly shocked me was this: SK Hynix dropped 13.69%, yet funds saw a net inflow of $371 million. It also revealed that institutions had been net selling over 50 trillion KRW worth of SK Hynix leveraged ETFs a month ago.
Translation: Institutions exited early → Retail investors took the bag in leveraged ETFs → Now they are being liquidated and dumped out → Institutions are coming back to bottom-fish at low levels. Retail investors were the ones holding the bag the entire time.
Finally, it concluded: "Fundamentals haven't collapsed, but liquidity shocks may exceed expectations." Meaning: don't rush to bottom-fish; forced liquidations might not be over yet.
It gave me chills. I want to ask everyone: for these pits created by forced liquidations, do you wait until they finish clearing before entering, or do you start catching falling knives now?
$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
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