--- title: "The US-Iran situation remains unresolved, with oil prices and global stock markets caught in a volatile tug-of-war." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42823615.md" description: "The core theme of the global capital markets in recent times has been completely tied to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with significant amplification of volatility in oil and equity markets. Many traders have clearly felt a substantial reduction in intraday error tolerance, where even minor news disturbances can trigger intense divergence between bulls and bears. The root cause lies in the escalating US-Iran tensions. For several days, the US military has conducted airstrikes on targets associated with Iran, directly impacting shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz. As the core channel for global crude oil maritime transport, over 30% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes through here, and expectations of disrupted navigation have directly ignited panic regarding supply shortages in the market. The reaction from capital flows has been very swift..." datetime: "2026-07-21T08:39:24.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42823615.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42823615.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42823615.md) author: "[付轶啸](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/4968.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # The US-Iran situation remains unresolved, with oil prices and global stock markets caught in a volatile tug-of-war. The core theme of the global capital market in recent times has been firmly tied to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, significantly amplifying volatility in crude oil and equity markets. Many traders have clearly felt a substantial reduction in intraday error tolerance, where even minor news disturbances can trigger intense divergence between bulls and bears. The root cause lies in the escalating US-Iran tensions. For several days, the US military has conducted airstrikes against Iran-linked targets, directly impacting shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz. As the core channel for global crude oil maritime transport, over 30% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes through here. The expectation of disrupted navigation has directly ignited supply panic in the market. Capital markets reacted swiftly, with overseas hedge funds concentrating on increasing long positions in crude oil. The weekly scale of bullish holdings surged significantly as institutions collectively bet on the long-term existence of geopolitical risk premiums, pushing Brent crude steadily above the $90 integer mark. The energy sector subsequently experienced a 阶段性 (phased) rally. The greatest uncertainty in the current market is not the military actions already executed by both sides, but the ambiguous external stance of the Trump administration. At this stage, the White House has not released any clear plan for concluding the situation: there are no strong signals to expand into a full-scale war, nor any willingness to ease tensions or initiate ceasefire negotiations. This ambiguous policy posture is the most rejected risk by capital markets. Capital pricing relies on certainty; the stagnant 'neither up nor down' deadlock will continue to amplify volatility across various global assets, dragging crude oil, gold, and US tech growth stocks into wide-range oscillation. Briefing down the logic from the market details, the divergence in trends between two types of assets is very clear. Crude oil maintains a pattern of easy gains and difficult losses in the short term. As long as the navigational hazards in the Strait of Hormuz are not eliminated and the US and Iran have not reached a ceasefire consensus, the geopolitical premium will continue to support oil prices. Whenever conflict news ferments, bull funds quickly enter to push prices up; even if there is a short-term pullback, bottom-fishing funds will quickly absorb the selling pressure, continuously compressing the downside space. In contrast, the tech growth sector continues to face pressure. Rising oil prices will boost global inflation expectations, directly limiting the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts. A long-term high-interest-rate environment suppresses the valuations of high-valuation growth stocks. Meanwhile, risk-averse capital continues to flow out of high-volatility equity tracks towards inflation-hedging safe-haven assets like crude oil and gold, further dragging down the recovery of the tech sector. For the market to break the current range-bound consolidation pattern, only two types of clear signals need to materialize. First, the US and Iran release signals for a ceasefire and negotiations, causing geopolitical risks to cool down rapidly. The risk premium embedded in oil prices will dissipate quickly, funds will flow back into growth tracks, and the stock market will welcome a repair window. Second, the conflict escalates fully. The market will pre-price the risk of extreme crude oil supply contraction, leading to an accelerated rise in oil prices. However, the ensuing global stagflation concerns will exert stronger downward pressure on global stock markets. For ordinary investors, it is inadvisable to blindly follow the crowd to chase high crude oil prices, nor is it necessary to continuously bearish on the tech track. Before the geopolitical situation settles, high market volatility will become the norm. Chasing highs and selling lows 极易 (easily) leads to bilateral losses. A more prudent response is to reduce overall position sizes, shrink trading leverage, reduce frequent short-term operations, and patiently wait for key signals that clarify the situation. In essence, the core driver of this round of oil price increases has long detached from the fundamental supply and demand of crude oil, being entirely dominated by geopolitical panic sentiment. As long as the US stance remains ambiguous and there are no signs of cooling in the Middle East conflict, the pattern of strong crude oil oscillation and repeated pressure on the stock market will persist. $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) @Activity Host ### Related Stocks - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**