Tech giants' earnings reports converge, AI track approaches a watershed moment

At the beginning of the year, the AI computing power and storage sectors soared, with capital flocking to group holdings, enjoying unparalleled glory. However, in recent times, the trend has shifted sharply. Funds within the market are seizing opportunities to realize floating profits, causing the heat in these tracks to drop 骤降。
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a global barometer for chips, has retraced more than 20% from its 阶段性 highs, officially entering a technical bear market; computing power and storage segments have experienced wide-range volatility, with long and short positions engaging in relentless tug-of-war. Market concerns focus on two points: first, whether tech giants can sustain their continued increase in AI capital expenditures; second, whether the supply-demand landscape for high-end computing chips might reverse, with diverging views continuing to ferment, suppressing the sector's valuation repair space.

I. Key Window: US Stock Earnings Season Begins, Leaders Reveal Results One by One

This week marks the start of the super earnings disclosure cycle for US stocks, with a host of global tech giants concentrating on releasing their Q2 operational results, providing core verification for industry prosperity:

1. After market close on the 22nd (Eastern Time): Google and Tesla will disclose results;
2. On the 23rd (Eastern Time): Intel and Nokia will publish financial reports.
   Covering the entire industry chain of cloud infrastructure, computing chips, and smart terminals, this data has strong reference value for the industry and serves as an anchor for setting the tone of short-term market trends.

II. Three Core Observation Dimensions to Distinguish Industry Reality

The market's attention is focused on three sets of core operational data to decipher the true temperature of the AI industry:

1. Cloud business revenue growth rate

Cloud services are the foundation of AI commercialization. Thousands of enterprises rely on cloud computing resources to train and deploy large models. A persistently high cloud revenue growth rate confirms strong downstream demand for AI implementation in real industries; if the growth rate drops significantly, it indicates a decline in industry purchasing willingness, casting doubt on industry prosperity.

1. Full-year computing capital expenditure guidance

The investment plans of major tech companies for full-year computing infrastructure determine the volume of forward orders for upstream chip and server manufacturers. If companies raise their capital expenditure expectations, it means the computing expansion cycle continues, ensuring 无忧 demand for the upstream industry chain; if they cut budgets, the prosperity logic of the computing industry chain weakens.

1. In-hand orders for data center chips

In-hand orders for chip manufacturers are the most direct reflection of upstream supply and demand. Abundant orders indicate robust computing procurement demand, giving the sector confidence for valuation repair; continuously shrinking orders suggest that downstream demand has been overdrawn in advance, making it difficult to stop the adjustment of the chip sector.

III. Two Scenario Deductions for Future Market Trends

Scenario 1: Earnings exceed expectations, prosperity logic is confirmed

If leading enterprises show high cloud business growth, raise computing investments, and have full chip orders, previous pessimistic concerns in the market will be dispelled. Configuration funds that exited earlier will flow back into layout, bringing a phased repair rally to the computing power, storage, and cloud service tracks, with the semiconductor index recovering and rebounding.
Adapted layout directions: Upstream computing chips, AI servers, and cloud infrastructure industry chains.

Scenario 2: Earnings fall short of expectations, weakening demand confirms worries

If cloud business growth slows significantly, big tech cuts computing investments, and chip orders miss expectations, the market's imagination space for AI high prosperity will shrink, and tech growth valuations will continue to be revised downward, prolonging the period of volatile adjustments in the sector.
Shift in fund flows: Funds will withdraw from high-valuation growth tracks and move towards defensive safe-haven assets such as commodities and gold.

IV. Investment Advice

1. Before earnings are released, maintain light positions and observe. Do not bet heavily on earnings-driven rallies. With intense divergence between bulls and bears currently, earnings news can easily cause huge fluctuations in the market; blind bottom-fishing can easily lead to being trapped;
2. Wait for earnings data to land, clarify the industry's temperature, and then adjust positions opportunistically. If earnings verify high prosperity, wait for the sector to stabilize and buy core leaders in batches; if data shows a 全线 weakness, reduce tech growth positions to avoid the risk of continuous valuation digestion;
3. Pitfall warning: Do not easily bottom-fish small-cap targets in these tracks. When industry prosperity is declining, small-cap enterprises have weak risk resistance, and their drawdowns far exceed those of industry leaders.

Risks include global geopolitical conflicts disturbing inflation levels, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening pace exceeding expectations, AI commercialization progress falling short of predictions, and overseas tech giants' earnings significantly below market expectations.

Conclusion

The deep correction in the AI track this time stems from the fact that previous stock price gains detached from fundamental support, and high valuations urgently need earnings realization to corroborate. The concentrated release of giant earnings this week is a key watershed for the AI trend. The three sets of data—cloud growth, computing expenditure, and chip orders—will clarify the industry's temperature. With fundamentals unclear, the market's wide-range volatility pattern is unlikely to change. Operations should favor stillness over movement. Wait for the dust to settle before choosing to advance or retreat.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) @Activity Host