---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42838672.md"
description: "I came across this news today. Since the prediction was accurate, I'll learn from their method. At the time, I also thought they were creating panic for no reason, but looking back, I was wrong. Although many economists in the A-share market are considered 'brick experts' (fake experts), I prefer to learn from others' strengths;Yang Delong, who switched from engineering at Tsinghua University to economics at Peking University, has quite a large academic span. In terms of data, he focuses on the ratio of margin trading balance to circulating market cap (calculating growth rate using the control variable method) compared to 2015, and his prediction regarding short-term individual stock pullbacks triggering negative feedback by 20% was also accurate.Therefore, we can consider creating a factor based on this or paying attention to this economist's research methodology."
datetime: "2026-07-21T22:05:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42838672.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42838672.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42838672.md)
author: "[新用戶_dLcvRX](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/22978229.md)"
---

# I came across this news today. Since the predictio…


## Comments (2)

- **新用戶_dLcvRX · 2026-07-22T07:05:48.000Z**: There is indeed a similar view in macroeconomics: the debt cycle is about lending too much money, which creates systemic risk.
- **新用戶_dLcvRX · 2026-07-22T07:05:31.000Z**: There is an academic paper analyzing "financing interest rates," where a higher rate indicates profitability. This financing volume and growth rate can be used to construct a factor, starting the analysis from 2015 in conjunction with factors such as the China-US interest rate differential.