---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43065685.md"
description: "MSFT FY4Q26 First Take. Amid an earnings deluge this read is a touch late, but the takeaway is clear: the leadership rotation has swung back in Microsoft's favor. Four key points:1) Azure re-acceleration: the Jun quarter grew 43% YoY. Guidance points to 45% next quarter, with 2H growth running ahead of 1H.2) Capex did not spike: spend was $41bn this quarter, with next quarter guided to $50bn. That implies CY 4Q at approx. $52bn and keeps the run-rate on track for CY2026 capex of ~$200bn including leases. For FY2027, management still guides to YoY growth.A small wrinkle: by extending useful lives on long-duration assets, some items now qualify as operating leases and no longer count toward capex. This technically lowers CY2026 reported capex to ~$175bn.3) Making money: with AI a bigger mix in cloud, GPM should have compressed, yet the actual pullback was modest. Higher revenue amplified operating leverage and drove a sharp decline in opex ratio, helped by ~5k headcount reductions this fiscal year. As a result, margins rose rather than fell.Note an important timing point: Microsoft began ramping capex in 2Q23 and has kept it elevated for three years, but D&A remains light, with the latest quarter even down YoY. Early capex skewed to long-lived assets and useful lives were extended this time, delaying expense recognition. Starting in 3Q25, however, shorter-cycle assets like servers will be purchased in size, so the depreciation headwind has yet to fully bite.4) Cash to spare: unlike Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta, whose aggressive spend has strained cash flows, Microsoft's cash capex excluding finance leases remains in the $30–35bn range. Based on the qualitative capex guide and revenue trajectory, free cash flow should stay positive in the new fiscal year.Overall, Microsoft posted a 'help-yourself' quarter in a market that is turning cautious on AI infrastructure spending elsewhere. Growth, margins, and cash are all in place, and in today's setup and risk appetite, the long-awaited rotation has finally come back to Microsoft. $Microsoft(MSFT.US)"
datetime: "2026-07-30T06:29:28.000Z"
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43065685.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/43065685.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/43065685.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# MSFT FY4Q26 First Take. Amid an earnings deluge th…


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## Comments (6)

- **晃荡中 · 2026-07-30T08:27:47.000Z**: Thanks for your hard work, Dolphin Research
- **tigerinmotion 之天地过客 · 2026-07-30T07:15:19.000Z**: This is a paradox: they hedge their bets to please Wall Street, but once a true large-scale application boom hits, this hedging approach rather than going "all in" will see them abandoned by Wall Street. Wall Street are just strong-chasing scumbags.
- **只想捡便宜 · 2026-07-30T07:04:03.000Z**: The last paragraph hits the nail on the head. The market's broad sell-off was previously driven by relatively conservative AI investments. Now that the tide is receding and the excessive speculation in AI is cooling down, it's Microsoft's turn to shine.
  - **tigerinmotion 之天地过客** (2026-07-30T07:15:50.000Z): What is over-speculation?
  - **学会空仓的小刘鸭** (2026-07-30T07:34:11.000Z): It's just 疯狂 expansion buying cards to build compute power; Microsoft's AI not being that strong is actually a good thing.
- **第100次爆仓，从500块 · 2026-07-30T06:33:38.000Z**: Thanks for the hard work, Dolphin Research. You always provide in-depth analysis.