--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43147171.md" description: "HBM Core Logic Invalidated [Must Sell] Two Major Signal ListsDivided into Ultimate Technology Disruption Signals (Logic Completely Dead)Cyclical Prosperity Peak Signals (This Market Cycle Ends)As long as any one group appearsYou must reduce holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron.I. Terminal Fatal Signals (If any 1 appearsLong-term clear out the Storage Big Three)This is the core inflection point that completely overturns the rigid demand for HBMMuch more severe than a cyclical downturn:1. NVIDIA officially announces the cancellation of the binding HBM architecture for its next-generation flagship GPUThe Feynman architecture after Rubin will completely switch to on-chip ultra-large SRAM + remote shared memory pool; single GPUs will no longer stack HBM stacks; only low-end inference chips will retain a small amount of HBM.Currently, it is just reducing ordinary DRAM within cabinets. Once flagship training cards cut HBM, over 70% of the high-margin business of the Big Three will collapse directly.2. GDDR8/New Distributed Memory Completes Bandwidth OvertakingLow-cost wide-bit GDDR solutions, under 12.8T Scale-up bandwidth,Power consumption and latency fully catch up with HBM;Cloud providers batch-switch to low-cost solutions, and HBM premiums go to zero completely.3. Co-packaged Optical Engine Built-in Memory Replaces External HBMCPO optical chips directly integrate storage units; GPUs no longer need external stacked memory, and stacking processes completely lose their irreplaceability.4. CXMT/Domestic Manufacturers Mass Produce Mature Products Benchmarking HBM5The global HBM oligopoly pattern is broken, supply is completely oversuppliedHBM gross margin drops from 70%+ to within 15% of ordinary DRAM.II. Cyclical Peak Signals(This Storage Super Cycle Ends, Phase-based Selling)Even if the technology route hasn't changed, you must retreat once the prosperity cycle is complete. Track 4 leading indicators:1. HBM Long-term Contracts Begin Large-scale CancellationsCloud factories originally locked multi-year framework orders until 2027-2028,Appear batch reductions in procurement volume;This is a signal that precedes spot price increases.2. DRAM/NAND Inventory Weeks Jump from Low Levels of 3-4 WeeksTo Above 12 Weeks The Iron Law of Storage Cycles:Inventory bottoming out is the starting point of a bull marketInventory returning to high levels is the starting point of a bear market;The Big Three are forced to cut production and lower prices to destockProfits decline quarter-on-quarter for two consecutive quarters.3. HBM Contract Prices Show Month-over-Month Growth Below 3% for 2 Consecutive MonthsTurning from rising to falling As long as the momentum for price hikes extinguishesStorage stocks will peak 1 quarter early;Even if sales volume is still rising, valuations will crash quickly.4. Three Original Manufacturers Significantly Increase HBM Capital ExpenditureFiercely building new stacking production lines All manufacturers collectively expand productionOversupply will inevitably arrive in 2 yearsIn history, every major drop in storage begins with collective expansion.III. Distinguish: Which News is False Panic, No Need to SellMany news items will only impact peripheral businesses, completely not affecting the core HBM foundation:✅ Cabinet-local SSDs, Ordinary SOCAMM Memory Downgrades(Normal architecture reconstruction, does not affect HBM)✅ Special Edition Chips Switch to GDDR to Avoid Export Controls(Limited to China's low-end special editions, global flagships still standardly equipped with HBM) ✅ Single Quarter Profit Slightly Below Market Expectations(Short-term sentiment drop, does not change long-term rigid demand)$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)" datetime: "2026-08-03T04:31:54.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43147171.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/43147171.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/43147171.md) author: "[嘉禾暖光学习财商](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17154496.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # HBM Core Logic Invalidated [Must Sell] Two Major S… ### Related Stocks - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [SKHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHY.US.md) - [SKHYV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHYV.US.md) - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [SNDK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [688825.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688825.CN.md) - [SMSN.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMSN.UK.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Comments (9) - **新用戶_Jga5OB · 2026-08-04T08:35:58.000Z**: This article should have been posted earlier. - **moderndog · 2026-08-03T07:14:00.000Z**: Most people believe the same, so they keep buying more as it drops, until they suffer losses. - **嘉禾暖光学习财商** (2026-08-03T07:20:31.000Z): I personally didn't add to my position, but can do day trading. In a chaotic period, if I buy (B), I'll mainly do day trading, because if storage is a cyclical stock, then the future trend will be dow - **幻想日进斗金 · 2026-08-03T06:39:09.000Z · 👍 3**: Holding HBM, can I still add to my position now? - **卖飞专业** (2026-08-03T06:39:31.000Z): It's actually fine; just use a 🇭🇰 card or set up a global proxy with 🪜, that's how I do it. - **嘉禾暖光学习财商** (2026-08-03T06:56:50.000Z): You can do some research on it. It seems that in the later stage, storage capacity inside the cabinet will decrease while fiber optics and other things will increase. Regarding HBM correlation, I'm lo - **HQQH · 2026-08-03T05:30:22.000Z**: 🤣 - **lengding · 2026-08-03T04:41:34.000Z · 👍 3**: So, will you remind me if the following situation occurs? - **嘉禾暖光学习财商 · 2026-08-03T04:32:01.000Z · 👍 1**: 4. Differentiated exit pacing for the three targetsSK Hynix: As long as its HBM market share remains #1, it is the last to be exited;Only liquidate when the oligopoly structure collapses.Micron: Once mandatory local supply chain share policies in the US loosen,Micron will be reduced first.Samsung El --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**