$SpaceX(SPCX.US) Regarding SpaceX's first earnings report since its listing, I lean towards being cautious in the short term and not betting on a short-term surge. The core risk lies not in the earnings report itself, but in the massive lock-up expiration that follows (very important)!!!

Even if this earnings report delivers impressive results for Starlink's revenue and gross margin, it is unlikely to fully offset the selling pressure from the lock-up expiration. A large number of early shareholders and employees are entering a window where they can cash out, and this huge supply of chips will directly suppress the stock price's rebound potential.

The company is experiencing a stark contrast internally: Starlink is a stable source of cash flow, but xAI is a high-consumption business, with massive capital expenditures continuously devouring the profits generated by Starlink. The key for the market is whether Starlink's profitability can cover the burning costs of AI and Starship.

Even if the earnings beat expectations, there might be a brief pulse rally driven by short covering, but as the locked-up shares gradually flow out, the trend is hard to sustain. If the performance merely meets expectations, or if AI losses exceed market forecasts, the combination of earnings and selling pressure could easily lead to a double whammy.

In the short term, it is best to observe and avoid the impact of the lock-up window. In the medium to long term, continuous tracking of Starlink's cash flow and the convergence of AI expenses is necessary. A single quarterly earnings report is insufficient to determine the long-term trajectory.