[Viewpoint: Bullish on SpaceX] If you aren't bullish, why bother buying long? It's your own choice; you'll have to endure it (and lose it all) even if you have to crawl.

My judgment: After this earnings report, SpaceX is highly likely to undergo a re-pricing, with an upward bias. This is because its top-tier sentiment has already been cut in half by 50%. Those claiming it's worth $10 or $30 are outside the scope of discussion.

I believe the biggest divergence in the market right now isn't whether SpaceX has a story, but whether it can convert that story into cash flow. I think the key variable is Starlink.

In the past, the market's valuation of SpaceX largely included future expectations, but Starlink is changing this logic. Satellite internet is not just a communication business; it is a global infrastructure network. Once the user base reaches a critical mass, it will exhibit characteristics similar to cloud computing businesses: high upfront capital investment in exchange for long-term, highly sticky cash flows.

Many people worry that xAI and Starship will continue to burn cash and drag down the company, but I think we should look at it from the opposite perspective. SpaceX is not relying on financing to maintain its dreams; rather, it is using mature businesses to fund future ones. Similar to how Amazon early on used e-commerce cash flow to invest in AWS, short-term profits were suppressed, but this opened up a much larger valuation space in the long run.

The unlock wave will affect short-term chip distribution, but I believe the market ultimately prices in fundamentals. If the earnings report can prove that Starlink's revenue growth rate, margin improvement, and cash flow capabilities exceed expectations, the pressure from unlocks could instead become an opportunity for funds to reposition.

I am currently down 50% on my 2x leveraged long position in SpaceX. I accept the loss. The biggest lesson learned is about directional judgment and trading discipline, which are separate from fundamentals. Good companies require patience, but position management determines whether you can wait for value realization.

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