$Miniso(MNSO.US)

Investing 3 million in Miniso, shorting against the trend to capture excess returns

With 3 million in principal capital, I targeted Miniso, which was overvalued, and decisively initiated a short position when the stock price stabilized at the 50-yuan mark. At that time, the market generally favored the concept of brands going global, with the vast majority of investors bullish on continued stock price increases. Industry positive news was everywhere, and few people noticed the hidden operational risks within the brand: frequent product compliance issues in multiple overseas markets, slowing store expansion, and sustained pressure on gross margins. The high valuation had long detached from fundamental support.

During the initial entry, I did not go all-in at once. Using 3 million as principal, I established a base position and added short positions in batches as the stock price rebounded slightly, adopting a ladder-style averaging-down strategy. Ignoring floating losses caused by short-term volatility, I persisted in using fundamentals as the core judgment criterion, firmly believing that the bubble would eventually burst. As negative news such as overseas regulatory penalties, store closure data, and revenue falling short of expectations landed one after another, market sentiment quickly reversed, and the stock price ended its high-level consolidation and entered a downward channel.

Over just a few months of market development, holding gains continued to climb, with 阶段性 returns reaching 120% first. I did not rush to exit completely. Combining industry research, I judged that the company's operational pressures had not eased, and the brand's cost-performance advantage was gradually being diluted by competitors, leaving huge room for valuation downside.

Based on reasonable fundamental valuation estimates, the stock has long-term downside potential to fall below 10 yuan. With an initial capital of 3 million and continuously optimized position management, if the stock price realizes the downside expectation, the overall profit scale will exceed the ten-million level.

This contrarian layout was not a lucky gamble, but rather seeing through the fundamental loopholes under thematic speculation. In the follow-up, I will continue to track the company's domestic and overseas operational data, compliance penalties, and core store operation indicators, retaining core short positions, and waiting quietly for the valuation to return to a reasonable range. Against the backdrop of intensifying homogenization in the consumer sector, highly valued brands detached from real profitability will ultimately return to their intrinsic value. From a long-term perspective, the logic behind this short sale remains valid.