---
title: "The Swiss Franc triangle is approaching a breakout critical point, with US and European stock markets all hitting new highs."
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43170845.md"
description: "USD/CHF – Rebounded for two days, halting the decline; the expanding triangle pattern may be nearing its end. On the daily chart, the forex market seems to be gradually stabilizing after the disturbance caused by joint yen intervention. Although USD/CHF also faced adjustment pressure from the divergence at the top of oscillation indicators, the exchange rate has risen for two consecutive days as other major non-USD currencies have not yet stabilized. However, given that the wide-range volatility since mid-June has formed an unstable expanding triangle pattern, the future direction of the market remains uncertain. Besides needing to stabilize above the late November high of 0.8100, the monthly high of 0.8123..."
datetime: "2026-08-04T01:56:23.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43170845.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/43170845.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/43170845.md)
author: "[交易员说](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25527811.md)"
---

# The Swiss Franc triangle is approaching a breakout critical point, with US and European stock markets all hitting new highs.

**USD/CHF – Two-day rebound halts decline first, expanding triangle may be nearing its end**

**On the daily chart,** the forex market seems to be gradually calming down from the disturbance caused by joint yen intervention. Although USD/CHF also did not escape the adjustment pressure imposed by the divergence at the top of oscillation indicators, the exchange rate has risen for two consecutive days as other major non-US currencies have not yet stabilized. However, since the wide-range fluctuation since mid-June has taken on an unstable expanding triangle pattern, the subsequent direction of the market remains uncertain. Besides needing to stabilize above the high of late November last year at 0.8100, the monthly high of 0.8123 and the low of early June last year at 0.8155 are also potential obstacles that could prevent further gains in the exchange rate. In terms of indicators, the MACD has not stopped its retracement pace; the RSI is turning upward in the neutral zone, but the signal for a rebound is still weak.

**On the 4-hour chart,** multiple waves since June 24 for USD/CHF show obvious three-wave internal structures, highlighting the triangle characteristic. Looking at downside risks, we need to guard against the exchange rate breaking below the high of October last year at 0.8070, which would indicate a possible move towards the end of the pattern. Especially if the previous high in March, i.e., the recent lowest point of the downward wave in the potential triangle, is broken, it will be difficult to avoid a short-term topping crisis. Subsequent declines will likely seek bottoms around the mirror image of the high on June 11 and the low on July 2 at 0.8010, as well as the dense support levels below. In terms of indicators, after forming a golden cross below the zero axis, the MACD shows signs of stagnation; the RSI rebounds only to the weak side of the neutral zone, so the current rise in the exchange rate can only be regarded as a bounce for now.

**Resistance Reference:** 0.8123, 0.8155, 0.8215

**Support Reference:** 0.8075, 0.8040, 0.8010

\* USD/CHF 4-Hour Chart

**S&P 500 Index (US500) – Three consecutive bullish candles approaching ATH, prepare for both scenarios upon breakdown**

**On the daily chart,** as geopolitical storms calm down again, US stocks have risen for three consecutive days. Has the market bottomed out? This question may still be pending for the Nasdaq, which adjusted sharply due to the crash in AI semiconductors, but the Dow Jones tracked by this column yesterday has already hit a new high, and the S&P 500 Index is only a stone's throw away from historical price levels. After the sell-off in memory chips on July 29, the market began to focus on interpreting the possibility of delayed Fed rate hikes. If the S&P breaks through the June previous high of 7625, the upside will continue to target psychological integer levels such as 7800 and 8000. The reverse 1.618x mapping position of the Q1 downtrend is then at the 8160 level. However, the market must always balance bidirectional risks during the breakthrough phase: as long as the highs of mid-June and July at 7520 are lost again, bulls should be on high alert. If the May mid-month high of 7520 is broken again, the market may continue the high-level box consolidation seen since May. The MACD forms a golden cross near the zero axis; the RSI rises towards the overbought line, and indicator language reveals the opportunity for the uptrend to restart.

**Resistance Reference:** 7625, 7800, 8000

**Support Reference:** 7575, 7520, 7415

\* US500 H4 Source: FXTM

**Euro Stoxx 50 Index (EU50) – Holding the uptrend to break new highs, beware of classic retracement**

**On the daily chart,** expectations of a pause in Fed rate hikes, combined with the easing of the Middle East situation, have led European blue-chip stocks to show resilient performance again. The Stoxx 50 Index broke out to a new high after rising for 3 consecutive days: the bulls previously won the directional battle at the key level of 6200 and reversed to open up a broader upward space. The subsequent upward target is immediately locked at the integer gate of 6500. It is expected that there will also be technical selling pressure at the reverse 1.618x mapping position of 6700 in the first round of the US-Iran conflict downturn. However, currently the MACD indicator just formed a golden cross above the zero axis, and there is still a large gap compared to the previous wave high of the corresponding index. Therefore, what bulls should most prevent right now is a rapid retracement of "breaking below the previous high," causing the index to perform a classic 2B retracement. This intense adjustment appearance may quickly push the index down to the high of June 19 at 6350 and the lower rail of this uptrend starting from late March. After losing this level, it will retest the February previous high of 6200, which is also a dense low-level area after late June. The contest concerns whether the index will build a stage top.

**Resistance Reference:** 6500, 6700, 7000

**Support Reference:** 6350, 6200, 6090

\* EU50 Daily

**Crude Oil (Crude) – Uptrend bottom edge hangs by a thread, resistance still present at July previous low**

**On the daily chart,** Trump's TACO performance knocked down oil prices again, and the drop on Monday (August 3) was largely released in the morning session. Subsequently, crude oil fluctuated narrowly near the initial uptrend lower rail since July during the European and American sessions, while the crucial April volatile low of 79.00 also exerted traction on the price. Once both are finally broken (which mostly also means further stabilization of the Iran situation), crude oil will likely continue to test supports such as the March 10 volatile low of 75.85 and the June 下旬 mirror position of 72.40. In terms of indicators, the MACD forms a death cross just above the zero axis; the RSI turns back to the weak zone, showing the signal that the previous rebound momentum encountered resistance.

**On the 4-hour chart,** crude oil pauses its selling pace above the July 28 low, but before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, the bulls dare not move lightly. But if the bulls launch a second rebound, the immediate stubborn resistance at 81.85 (the 38.2% retracement level of the long-term uptrend from 2020-2022) needs to be conquered urgently; closely above this level, the area connecting the potential downtrend line between the two wave highs in July will likely generate heavy selling pressure. Further up, the contest at 84.80 (converging lows of March 23 and June 9) and 86.70 (lower edge of the July 27 weekly gap) will determine whether the pattern establishes a small double bottom. In terms of indicators, the MACD fast line stops falling below the zero axis; the RSI rises slightly in the weak zone, and the market slows its downward pace.

**Resistance Reference:** 81.85, 84.80, 86.70

**Support Reference:** 79.00, 75.85, 72.40

\* Crude H4 Source: FXTM

**Gold/USD (XAU/USD) – Iron floor at 4000 remains unbroken, box potential continues to accumulate**

**On the daily chart,** the calming geopolitical situation prompted gold prices to open slightly higher at the beginning of the week, but the bulls achieved nothing throughout the day. During the session, it once again tested the strong support at the 4025 (double low of June 11 and July 8) to the 4000 gate. The market has been consolidating narrowly above this area for six consecutive trading days. If it finally grinds down and breaks through, the accumulated position potential may easily press towards the yearly valley bottom of 3940. After breaking through, the medium-term downtrend of the market will resume, inevitably accelerating the probe to the low of October last year at 3885. In terms of indicators, the originally slow recovery pace of the MACD and RSI shows signs of stagnation again, but the dull market condition of long-term narrow fluctuations has long paved the way for the final directional choice.

**On the 4-hour chart,** spot gold still has not escaped the amplitude of about $100 up and down over the past week or so, forming a narrower fluctuation space within the daily box. Given that the support above 4000 remains strong (the upper rail of the downtrend since mid-May is also reinforcing the area support), bulls may reignite the desire to attack the mirror image of the high and low points of late June at 4100. After breaking through, they will face the dense area of lows in December last year at 4165, and the June mid-to-late month mirror position at 4215, etc., which are strong resistances in the daily box top area. Conquering the latter will take a solid step in the medium-term bottoming of prices. Oscillation indicators fluctuate back and forth around the zero axis for several days, showing that the market still lacks a clear direction.

**Resistance Reference:** 4100, 4165, 4215

**Support Reference:** 4025/00, 3940, 3885

\* XAUUSD H4 Source: FXTM

### Related Stocks

- [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md)
- [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md)
- [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md)
- [SQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SQQQ.US.md)
- [PSQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSQ.US.md)
- [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md)
- [QQQE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQE.US.md)
- [TQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md)
- [DDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DDM.US.md)
- [DIA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md)
- [DOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DOG.US.md)
- [SDOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDOW.US.md)
- [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md)