---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43257103.md"
description: "$SpaceX(SPCX.US)Reviewing yesterday's market: Why didn't the anticipated crash happen, and why was there a surge at the close? What about future trends?First, why no crash?Real selling pressure usually doesn't occur on the lock-up expiration day. Block trade matching, the activation of 10b5-1 plans, and underwriter placements all take days to weeks. The fact that it didn't drop today only means "there was no concentrated dumping on the day," not that supply has disappeared. This design of phased release is more like a dripping faucet than a burst pipe; it reduces single-day impact but keeps potential supply hanging overhead for months—so the expiration date is unlikely to form a clean, immediately identifiable bottom.Second, why the surge at the close?One-third of SPCX's float is shorted. These positions were largely built on a specific thesis: "8/6 expiration, nearly a billion shares dumped, price will crash." This is an event-driven short position. Event-driven positions have a fatal flaw: once the event passes without materializing, the position loses its reason for existence. If you hold on, you pay borrow interest and bear unlimited upside risk, while the catalyst you bet on has vanished. So the rational move is to close the position immediately.Why at the close rather than a uniform rise throughout the day?Confirmation takes time. You can't know in the morning if anyone is actually selling. You have to wait until the afternoon, watching the order flow show no massive sell pressure, before concluding "the thesis was proven false." The judgment forms in the afternoon, so execution happens at the close.Afraid to hold overnight. With Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30 AM tomorrow, and shorts just getting slapped, no one wants to stay naked short against a macro event.True long-term buying looks different. Institutions use VWAP-style algorithms to spread orders across the entire day, resulting in a steady upward trend throughout. The concentrated surge at the close is "money in a hurry"—forced, deadline-driven buying.Leveraged ETFs add fuel to the fire. Those single-stock 2x inverse SPCX ETFs must rebalance before the daily close; as the stock rises, they must buy back exposure. This mechanical buying also piles up at the close.Understanding these two issues clarifies future trends:Covering is a one-time event; once bought, it's gone. Moreover, covered shorts are no longer potential buyers (short interest itself is a reserve of future buying power, and covering consumes it). New long-term capital, however, is continuous and will buy for several consecutive days. Therefore, today's rise doesn't automatically imply tomorrow's rise.Supply-demand imbalance and massive liquidity inflow into the market are unrelated to whether the company has long-term value; it's essentially a liquidity digestion issue. Thus, a decline is highly probable after the rise. I even believe the night session will fall back to around 110."
datetime: "2026-08-06T23:39:31.000Z"
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author: "[lingyi.001](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/12362532.md)"
---

# $SpaceX(SPCX.US)Reviewing yesterday's market: Why …


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## Comments (42)

- **鹧鸪 · 2026-08-07T14:39:36.000Z**: There may be further equity financing later, and the cash on hand is far from enough for 10GW of computing power.
- **股神万菲特 · 2026-08-07T13:39:48.000Z**: Delete post bar
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-07T17:59:34.000Z): Why? Strange logic. Oh, I've increased my short position to 50%
  - **股神万菲特** (2026-08-07T22:53:34.000Z): Congratulations to you
- **owenmarks · 2026-08-07T09:30:31.000Z**: Short first, then go long; kill two birds with one stone.
- **股神万菲特 · 2026-08-07T08:05:54.000Z**: The night session fell back to 110.... Well, I got slapped in the face first. This shows your analysis was wrong. In trading, you must be willing to admit mistakes. If your analysis and judgment are incorrect, don't force it.
- **优秀的达不刘 · 2026-08-07T06:02:09.000Z · 👍 1**: The price has broken below both the issue price and the unlock date conditions. If the price continues to drop, it still won't meet the unlock requirements. Additionally, the non-farm payroll data is likely to align with expectations, offering no fresh insights. The trading volume has surged signifi
- **azore易 · 2026-08-07T05:38:15.000Z**: The market is dominated by institutions, and the unlocking of shares is also done by their own group. Why should they sell at a low price to the market? Wouldn't it be better to pump up the price, burn short positions, and then dump at high levels?(⁎⁍̴̛ᴗ⁍̴̛⁎)
- **投资小达人 · 2026-08-07T03:08:35.000Z**: The market goes up and down, but my mindset has been wrecked by 602315. Is there any temporary emergency solution?
  - **坐等个股起飞** (2026-08-07T03:10:13.000Z): In an emergency, just turn on your phone's hotspot and use a proxy, or buy a Hong Kong SIM card and insert it; data roaming is the most stable.
- **limit · 2026-08-07T00:46:22.000Z**: An increase in liquidity is an objective fact. With supply and demand balanced, prices are determined by them, so a price decline is 100% certain.
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-07T01:03:20.000Z): The logic is sound.
- **千里背影 · 2026-08-07T00:13:29.000Z**: Hindsight is 20/20; traders don't engage in hindsight analysis.
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-07T00:16:11.000Z): Understand first, then comment
- **小霖 · 2026-08-07T00:10:33.000Z**: Already priced in in advance,
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-07T00:25:26.000Z): Buying pressure is insufficient before year-end; the short-term move is just a short-covering rally, and it will fall further.
  - **limit** (2026-08-07T00:47:03.000Z): Are you saying the 900 million restricted shares have been absorbed?
- **萨贝拉琼 · 2026-08-06T23:59:34.000Z**: All in all, it seems like they just can't stand seeing Starlink go up.
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-07T00:02:06.000Z): Understand the analysis logic and discuss rationally. The market performance before the end of the year does not reflect the company's long-term value, but rather reflects the supply and demand struct
  - **千里背影** (2026-08-07T00:11:39.000Z): Bro, you're a shareholder, what's your cost basis?
  - **萨贝拉琼** (2026-08-07T00:13:35.000Z): 109
- **满仓spcx等暴涨 · 2026-08-06T23:55:13.000Z**: OK.. if it doesn't fall back to 110 tonight, and doesn't break below 100 next Wednesday, what's the new explanation?
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-07T00:03:16.000Z): The prediction result itself is meaningless; you could just guess randomly by rolling dice. What matters is having a thinking framework for predictions that has been repeatedly proven successful.
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-07T00:04:12.000Z): Let's see how the trend goes tomorrow. I should be one of the few predicting it will fall back overnight.
- **股神万菲特 · 2026-08-06T23:44:49.000Z · 👍 2**: I'm being late to the party, but I predicted two days ago that there wouldn't be a crash. When bearish sentiment is too unanimous, it definitely won't fall.
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-06T23:48:47.000Z): Rational discussion, understand not just the 'what' but the 'why'. Based on my logic, it will drop back to 110 at the earliest tonight, and break below 100 by next Wednesday at the latest.
  - **就吃豆腐乳** (2026-08-06T23:51:56.000Z): What if it doesn't break below?
  - **股神万菲特** (2026-08-06T23:54:10.000Z): OK.. if it doesn't fall back to 110 tonight, and doesn't break below 100 next Wednesday, what would be the new explanation?
- **kevinyi · 2026-08-06T23:44:18.000Z**: Waiting for SpaceX at $100
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-06T23:49:07.000Z): I predict it will most likely happen before next Wednesday.
  - **去哪滑雪** (2026-08-06T23:55:04.000Z): Gambling?
  - **lingyi.001** (2026-08-07T00:00:42.000Z): There is underlying logic. Friday was the options expiration date, so it couldn't accurately reflect true supply and demand. The real trend starts next Monday, and I am bearish; three days are enough