---
title: "This week's Intel Desk | AMD's data centre doubles yet the stock falls 9%; non-farm payrolls tonight"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43269435.md"
description: "AMD doubles yet drops 9%, SpaceX's valuation, whether Palantir's growth is real — this week's most-asked questions, all unpacked.Share a conversation in the comments for 288 Task Coins, plus a draw for a AI Pro card."
datetime: "2026-08-07T10:35:18.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43269435.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/43269435.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/43269435.md)
author: "[LongbridgeAI](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/10010333.md)"
---

# This week's Intel Desk | AMD's data centre doubles yet the stock falls 9%; non-farm payrolls tonight

**AI Intel Desk · Issue 1 · one readable piece of market intel every week**

Every issue of the Intel Desk pulls scattered information into a single weekly brief, and marks the moments worth watching ahead of time

Intel dispatched — help yourself

* * *

## 📖 Key events this week (3–9 Aug)

> **ADP private payrolls 44K** (expected 70K, prior 98K) came in far short; the **ISM non-manufacturing employment sub-index at 47.4** fell below 50 into contraction; and **unit labour costs rose just +1.3%** in the initial estimate (expected +2.1%) — a "cooling labour market plus easing inflation pressure" combination that leans supportive for rate-cut expectations. But **ISM manufacturing PMI at 55.6** came in stronger than expected and offsets some of that, so the market is still waiting on tonight's (7 Aug) non-farm payrolls to confirm the direction.

## 📌 Picked Q&As this week

Drawn from real Longbridge AI questions this week — the three topics users asked about most.

### 1\. AMD's post-Q2 slump

> What the market fears is never "fast growth" itself, but whether that growth is just an illusion created by contracts landing all at once. The AI disproved that doubt in one move with a six-quarter QoQ acceleration table — no jump, no fallback, just a steadily rising curve. **In one line: not fireworks from short-term contracts, but a ramp of structural adoption.**

**The real question**: AMD's capex came in at $808M vs analyst estimates of $299M — is this grabbing AI share, or over-expansion?

**The AI's core answer**:

-   Eight quarters of capex: $132M → $808M (6× in a year, 4× in a single quarter)
-   FCF/OCF still at 34% and the absolute figure at a record high — **"****this isn't expansion out of desperation; they're spending more because they're earning more"**
-   **Three destinations for the capex**: Helios rack-scale systems, MI450 tape-out, and CoWoS advanced packaging — all "building capacity", not "buying market share"
-   **The key call**: not over-expansion, but a slope that implies a longer investment period — MI450 only lands in H1 2027, while Vera Rubin has been in volume production for a year

Image from a real Longbridge AI response.

### 2\. SpaceX's first quarterly report since listing

> An investment narrative is at its most dangerous when two attractive premises stack up — "subscribers doubled plus cash flow improving" sounds exactly like an inflection point already reached. The AI didn't get carried along; it recalculated P/S of 36× back up to 45×, and turned "FCF improved to −$1.1B" back into "H1 deteriorated to −$24.3B". In one line: whether it's expensive is a valuation question, but whether the valuation is even real is a data question first.

**The real question**: Starlink subscribers doubled and free cash flow improved from −$9B to −$1.1B — at 36× P/S, is it cheap enough?

**The AI's core answer**:

-   **Corrected the premises first**: P/S is actually 43–45× (not 36×), and H1 cumulative FCF is −$24.3B (not an improvement to −$1.1B) — the question was based on figures circulating in the market, and the AI's first move was to check them
-   **SOTP valuation**: a fair value of $309.8B–$490.6B versus the current $1,416.0B — **a premium of 2.9–4.6×**
-   **"Subscribers doubling" does not equal "revenue doubling"**: Starlink subscribers +68%, but ARPU fell from $85 to $66 (−22%)
-   **The key call**: not cheap — two of the three premises are wrong, the SOTP breakdown shows a 3–4× premium, and FCF is still widening. "36× P/S is cheap" is an illusion propped up by a miscalculated valuation and a misread cash-flow narrative

Image from a real Longbridge AI response.

### 3\. Palantir's Q2 results

> To judge whether growth is real, don't look at how bright the quarter's number is — look at the shape of the curve. Contracts landing in a batch make it jump; sustained acceleration makes it climb. Palantir's QoQ growth climbed steadily from 7.6% to 22.5% over six quarters, and that is the hardest kind of curve to fake.

**The real question**: Palantir's US commercial revenue grew +153% — is this AI commercialisation genuinely taking off, or just contracts landing all at once?

**The AI's core answer**:

-   **Corrected the premise first**: it isn't +153% — that's TCV growth; revenue actually grew +149%. The AI cleared up the metric the user had conflated in one line.
-   **Key evidence**: nine quarters of QoQ acceleration (7.6% → 22.5%, with no "jump then fall back") + $4.9B of RPO locking in 12 months of visibility + revenue per top-20 customer +67%.
-   **The counterweight**: the US alone accounts for 81% of revenue, non-operating income up +292% is propping up profit, and Ark has been trimming while Burry is short.

Image from a real Longbridge AI response.

## ✍️ Next week's calendar (10–16 Aug)

## 🎁 Comment to win

**In the comments**, share a conversation you've had with the AI

**Rewards**:

-   Every valid entry earns**288 Task Coins**
-   **10** valid participants are then drawn at random, each receiving an**AI Pro benefits card (30 days) worth HK$148**

**Event period**: from now until 14 August 2026, 7:00 PM. Rewards will be distributed within 15 working days after the event ends

> AI Intel Desk · Issue 1
> 
> Pulling scattered information into one weekly brief, and marking the moments worth watching ahead of time. See you next issue.

_\* Nothing in this post constitutes investment advice. Longbridge reserves the right of final interpretation._

### Related Stocks

- [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md)
- [PLTR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTR.US.md)
- [AMD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMD.US.md)
- [UXSD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UXSD.SG.md)

## Comments (17)

- **正当时@小新 · 2026-08-07T11:40:03.000Z · 👍 1**: It has to be you! ✧(≖◡≖✿)
- **土狗一枚 · 2026-08-07T11:28:10.000Z**: I asked about the few stocks I'm holding, and the answers were more detailed than I expected.
- **执笔画乾坤--Justin · 2026-08-07T11:22:08.000Z**: The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors are clashing, making it really hard to see the direction this week.
- **韭菜觉醒版 · 2026-08-07T11:17:28.000Z**: Whether it's expensive is a valuation issue; whether the valuation is real is first and foremost a data issue." — This statement has broad applicability.
- **复利进行时 · 2026-08-07T11:13:26.000Z**: A weekly report marks everything that needs to be watched this week, which is better than scrolling through ten news flashes.
- **K线舞蹈家 · 2026-08-07T11:10:14.000Z**: ADP was 44K vs the expected 70K, such a big difference, no wonder the market is 不敢 to move
- **凉风说财经 · 2026-08-07T11:04:47.000Z**: Non-farm payrolls tonight, bookmark the schedule first so you don't miss it again
- **人间半盏茶 · 2026-08-07T11:02:02.000Z**: The active error correction is the most practical; the 口径 (standard/measure) I used myself was wrong.
- **泼天富贵等我接 · 2026-08-07T11:01:52.000Z**: The QoQ curve for six quarters is much more useful than single-quarter figures; learned a new trick
- **股噜噜 · 2026-08-07T11:01:43.000Z**: 'It's not a short-term contract fireworks display, but a structurally grounded slope,' I've noted this down.
- **存存 · 2026-08-07T11:01:33.000Z**: AMD's data center business doubled but still fell 9%; only after reading the CapEx section did I understand what the market is afraid of.
- **一尘听风雨 · 2026-08-07T10:59:22.000Z**: 8/11 $Tencent Music(TME.US)$TME-SW(01698.HK) results released first, serving as the appetizer for the Tencent earnings season. The point of interest regarding "AI recommendations boosting ARPU" is quite interesting; can the payment rate be pushed up by algorithms?
- **小猫滚键盘 · 2026-08-07T10:54:53.000Z**: The analysis chart from AMD mentions $NVIDIA(NVDA.US): "When MI450 is deployed on a large scale, Vera Rubin will have been in mass production for a year." Money is not the issue; time is.
- **叫你一声你敢答应吗 · 2026-08-07T10:52:34.000Z**: The calendar for next week directly marks Tencent's Q2 as "the most important event of next week," and I agree with this ranking—we need to know exactly where WeChat's AI commercialization stands and get some clarity on it $TENCENT(00700.HK)
- **天气不太热 · 2026-08-07T10:45:30.000Z**: I casually asked about $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)'s CoWoS capacity, which aligns perfectly with the AMD supply chain.
- **小池 · 2026-08-07T10:44:13.000Z**: $AMD(AMD.US)  I didn't understand this drop after the earnings report, until I saw the trajectory of CapEx from $132 million to $808 million
- **Wanner's gold coin · 2026-08-07T10:39:53.000Z · 👍 1**: That's all the info for the first episode, stay tuned for the next one